HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

<ul>
<li>Mandi’s valuation logic is drifting away from the main line of 3SBio.Mandi is "good asset but not core asset" within 3SBio system, so it’s difficult to drive up overall valuation. </li>
<li>Innovative drug R&amp;D will be the main driver for future valuation growth in "post-Mandi era". The Placing can be regarded as the continuous development of 3SBio after Mandi spin-off .</li>
<li>3SBio is undervalued. Valuation would be higher than Sino Biopharm and may also surpass Akeso, Hengrui in the future if its SSGJ-707 can deliver good clinical data in future trials.</li>
</ul>


Mandi’s valuation logic is drifting away from the main line of 3SBio.Mandi is "good asset but not core asset" within 3SBio system, so it’s difficult to drive up overall valuation. 
Innovative drug R&amp;D will be the main driver for future valuation growth in "post-Mandi era". The Placing can be regarded as the continuous development of 3SBio after Mandi spin-off .
3SBio is undervalued. Valuation would be higher than Sino Biopharm and may also surpass Akeso, Hengrui in the future if its SSGJ-707 can deliver good clinical data in future trials.


3SBio Inc (1530 HK) Placement - The Placing Price Indicates Decent Upside Potential in Valuation

UltraGreen.AI Private Limited operates as a surgical imaging technology development company. The Company develops indocyanine green fluorescence for injection, imaging system, quantification software, imaging software for visualization, and AR glasses. UltraGreen.AI serves health care sector in Singapore.

<ul>
<li>UltraGreen.ai's IPO valuation of US$1.6 billion is 6x the total 2030 market size for FGS systems. Such valuation is not based on current financial performance but on future growth expectations.</li>
<li>For UltraGreen.ai to justify its valuation, it would need to capture a dominant/growing share of this expanding market. This creates a high risk of valuation correction if growth is slower-than-expected.</li>
<li>The entire AI sector has been full of bubble.A market-wide correction could impact UltraGreen.ai's valuation regardless of its individual performance.US$1.3bn is a comfortable valuation for us to invest in UltraGreen.ai.</li>
</ul>


UltraGreen.ai's IPO valuation of US$1.6 billion is 6x the total 2030 market size for FGS systems. Such valuation is not based on current financial performance but on future growth expectations.
For UltraGreen.ai to justify its valuation, it would need to capture a dominant/growing share of this expanding market. This creates a high risk of valuation correction if growth is slower-than-expected.
The entire AI sector has been full of bubble.A market-wide correction could impact UltraGreen.ai's valuation regardless of its individual performance.US$1.3bn is a comfortable valuation for us to invest in UltraGreen.ai.


Pre-IPO UltraGreen.ai - Thoughts on the Business, the Concerns and the Valuation

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<li>Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. </li>
<li>The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.</li>
<li>An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.</li>
</ul>


Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. 
The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.
An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.


Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

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<li>Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.</li>
<li>Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.</li>
<li>If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.
Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

<ul>
<li>The growth of Innovent’s product revenue is always commendable. Based on strong growth momentum, product revenue in 2025 would be above RMB10 billion. Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 is expected.</li>
<li>Innovent’s peak sales would reach the level of RMB20 billion in 2027. RMB100 billion is the valuation bottom line in the short term. In mid-to-long term, the highlight is IBI363.</li>
<li>Current valuation has basically priced in favorable factors for fundamentals for the next three years.Investors can wait patiently for a pullback and buy the stock at a more cost-effective valuation.</li>
</ul>


The growth of Innovent’s product revenue is always commendable. Based on strong growth momentum, product revenue in 2025 would be above RMB10 billion. Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 is expected.
Innovent’s peak sales would reach the level of RMB20 billion in 2027. RMB100 billion is the valuation bottom line in the short term. In mid-to-long term, the highlight is IBI363.
Current valuation has basically priced in favorable factors for fundamentals for the next three years.Investors can wait patiently for a pullback and buy the stock at a more cost-effective valuation.


2026 High Conviction - China Healthcare: High-Certainty Investment Opportunity Has Emerged

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.