HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

Shijiangzhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co Ltd develops, produces and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company's major products include Tongxinluo capsules, Shensongyangxin capsules, Lotus Qingwen capsules, Qili Qiangxin capsules and Bazi Bushen capsules.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603 CH)

<ul>
<li>Due to the overvaluation of pharmaceutical companies in the primary market, only foreign markets are able to “digest” such high valuation. So, various promising drugs are acquired by foreign investors.</li>
<li>The field of RDC/RLT has attracted our attention, which could become the next hot area. Since nuclides are the most important bottleneck, domestic related enterprises will usher in opportunities.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shijiazhuang-yiling-pharmaceutical-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16040:1" rel="noopener">Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical</a>’s performance would continue to be under pressure in 24H1 but would rebound in 24H2 after “destocking”. Valuation/share price have not yet bottomed out. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.</li>
</ul>


Due to the overvaluation of pharmaceutical companies in the primary market, only foreign markets are able to “digest” such high valuation. So, various promising drugs are acquired by foreign investors.
The field of RDC/RLT has attracted our attention, which could become the next hot area. Since nuclides are the most important bottleneck, domestic related enterprises will usher in opportunities.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical’s performance would continue to be under pressure in 24H1 but would rebound in 24H2 after “destocking”. Valuation/share price have not yet bottomed out. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.5) - Overvaluation in Primary Market, RDC to Be Hot Spot, Yiling Pharma

Equity Capital Markets

Ximalaya operates as an audio sharing platform. The Company provides audiobooks, music, variety entertainment programs, news, and other audio contents. Ximalaya also provides technical consulting services.

<ul>
<li>The key to Ximalaya turning losses into profits is not the outstanding performance in revenue side, but rather the effective cost control. The Company seems to have encountered growth bottleneck.</li>
<li>To achieve long-term stable profits, it’s necessary to continuously optimize content quality, improve user experience, and expand paying user scale, but Ximalaya has shown "signs of fatigue" in this regard. </li>
<li>AI technology brings big room for imagination, but the question here is how much would truly translate into a leap in financial performance? Ximalaya’s valuation could be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


The key to Ximalaya turning losses into profits is not the outstanding performance in revenue side, but rather the effective cost control. The Company seems to have encountered growth bottleneck.
To achieve long-term stable profits, it’s necessary to continuously optimize content quality, improve user experience, and expand paying user scale, but Ximalaya has shown "signs of fatigue" in this regard. 
AI technology brings big room for imagination, but the question here is how much would truly translate into a leap in financial performance? Ximalaya’s valuation could be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Ximalaya - The Potential Risks and the Outlook

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

<ul>
<li>Hansoh’s performance in 2023 beat expectations, which was mainly driven by collaboration revenue. Revenue proportion of innovative drug business made breakthrough and has become the major performance driver.</li>
<li>Ameile’s future revenue growth is critical to Hansoh, but it faces increasing competition. EGFR/c-MET BsAb represents the future trend. If HS-20117 is successful, then the story of EGFR would continue.</li>
<li>In 2024, Hansoh is expected to receive an upfront payment of US$185 million from GSK. According to the management, revenue is expected to have double digit growth this year.</li>
</ul>


Hansoh’s performance in 2023 beat expectations, which was mainly driven by collaboration revenue. Revenue proportion of innovative drug business made breakthrough and has become the major performance driver.
Ameile’s future revenue growth is critical to Hansoh, but it faces increasing competition. EGFR/c-MET BsAb represents the future trend. If HS-20117 is successful, then the story of EGFR would continue.
In 2024, Hansoh is expected to receive an upfront payment of US$185 million from GSK. According to the management, revenue is expected to have double digit growth this year.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) - Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. is a cosmetics manufacturing company. The Company researches, produces, and markets lipstick, eye shadow, mascara, eyeliner, blush, and other products. Mao Geping Cosmetics also manufactures and sells makeup tools.

<ul>
<li>MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.</li>
<li>Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.</li>
<li>Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.</li>
</ul>


MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.
Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company's business/prospects.
Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.


Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Hygeia is a China based oncology healthcare group.

<ul>
<li>According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.</li>
<li>However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.</li>
<li>P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.</li>
</ul>


According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.
However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.
P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&amp;A to performance would decline.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5) - Overvaluation in Primary Market, RDC to Be Hot Spot, Yiling Pharma

Only foreign markets are able to “digest” high valuation of China's biotech assets in primary market. RDC/RLT will become the next hot area for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Ximalaya - The Potential Risks and the Outlook

Ximalaya's path to profitability is from effective cost control, but it seems hard to address growth bottlenecks. AI technology may offer...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) - Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds

Driven by collaboration revenue/breakthrough in innovative drug business, Hansoh's 2023 results beat expectations. But Ameile’s future growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5) - Overvaluation in Primary Market, RDC to Be Hot Spot, Yiling Pharma

Only foreign markets are able to “digest” high valuation of China's biotech assets in primary market. RDC/RLT will become the next hot area for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Ximalaya - The Potential Risks and the Outlook

​Ximalaya's path to profitability is from effective cost control, but it seems hard to address growth bottlenecks. AI technology may offer...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) - Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds

​Driven by collaboration revenue/breakthrough in innovative drug business, Hansoh's 2023 results beat expectations. But Ameile’s future growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics - Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

Despite high gross margin, ​MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) - High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

Hygeia achieved gratifying results in 24Q1, but progress of some projects has been delayed, making high growth in 2024 uncertain. Any future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ximalaya's path to profitability is from effective cost control, but it seems hard to address growth bottlenecks. AI technology may offer...

Driven by collaboration revenue/breakthrough in innovative drug business, Hansoh's 2023 results beat expectations. But Ameile’s future growth...

Despite high gross margin, MAO GEPING's heavy reliance on its flagship brand and founder could pose risks. Lack of innovation and over-reliance on...