HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

CPMC Holdings Ltd. manufactures food packaging products.

<ul>
<li>Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.</li>
<li>The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG's going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. </li>
<li>ORG's acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of "building strong alliances between SOEs". In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.</li>
</ul>


Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.
The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG's going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. 
ORG's acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of "building strong alliances between SOEs". In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.


CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update - The Story Behind the Delay of Offer Document Despatch

Equity Capital Markets

TYK Medicines, Inc. is an innovative biotechnology company founded by MNC veterans in 2017, focusing on the discovery of new-generation Kinase Inhibitors.

<ul>
<li>TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.</li>
<li>TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&amp;D arrangements.</li>
<li>TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.</li>
</ul>


TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.
TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&amp;D arrangements.
TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.


Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

L'Occitane International S.A. is a global, natural and organic ingredient based cosmetics and well-being products enterprise.  The Company designs, manufactures and markets a wide range of cosmetics and well-being products based on natural and organic ingredients sourced principally from or near Provence.

<ul>
<li>So far, about 49.8% of disinterested shares from Irrevocable Undertakings/Non-binding Letters of Support would accept the Share Offer. Success is within reach based on a “good enough” privatization price. </li>
<li>The Share Alternative is mainly aimed at investors who are hoping for the future re-listing of L'Occitane in the overseas markets - They can still get a vantage point.</li>
<li>However, re-listing seems still distant/uncertain. The value of Rollover Shares in the future remains uncertain. Investors would face risks if they choose the Share Alternative. The Cash Alternative is preferred.</li>
</ul>


So far, about 49.8% of disinterested shares from Irrevocable Undertakings/Non-binding Letters of Support would accept the Share Offer. Success is within reach based on a “good enough” privatization price. 
The Share Alternative is mainly aimed at investors who are hoping for the future re-listing of L'Occitane in the overseas markets - They can still get a vantage point.
However, re-listing seems still distant/uncertain. The value of Rollover Shares in the future remains uncertain. Investors would face risks if they choose the Share Alternative. The Cash Alternative is preferred.


L'Occitane (973.HK) - The Privatization Is About to Succeed

<ul>
<li>SAINT BELLA’s revenue growth fluctuated because the pandemic led to the delay in the pregnancy plan of many families and an increase in the rate of abortion or miscarriage. </li>
<li>The increasing contract liabilities indicate that short-term performance growth of SAINT BELLA is guaranteed, but the declining fertility rates in China will bring challenges to SAINT BELLA’s long-term growth momentum.</li>
<li>After Series B round financing in 2020, post-investment valuation was already about US$100 million. Valuation of SAINT BELLA should be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aidigong-maternal-child-health-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6880:1" rel="noopener">Aidigong Maternal &amp; Child Health Limited (286 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


SAINT BELLA’s revenue growth fluctuated because the pandemic led to the delay in the pregnancy plan of many families and an increase in the rate of abortion or miscarriage. 
The increasing contract liabilities indicate that short-term performance growth of SAINT BELLA is guaranteed, but the declining fertility rates in China will bring challenges to SAINT BELLA’s long-term growth momentum.
After Series B round financing in 2020, post-investment valuation was already about US$100 million. Valuation of SAINT BELLA should be higher than Aidigong Maternal &amp; Child Health Limited (286 HK).


Pre-IPO Saint Bella - The Outlook for Future Performance Growth Is Highly Uncertain

Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of "founding team's decent background + star cornerstone investors" doesn't work anymore.</li>
<li>Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those "good stories", but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.</li>
<li>Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.</li>
</ul>


Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of "founding team's decent background + star cornerstone investors" doesn't work anymore.
Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those "good stories", but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.
Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.


Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang
HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update - The Story Behind the Delay of Offer Document Despatch

Baosteel makes solid progress in acquiring CPMC, and this type of merger is in line with the idea of integration of SOEs. Comparatively, ORG may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

L'Occitane (973.HK) - The Privatization Is About to Succeed

The Offeror has received valid acceptances that would result in Offeror holding no less than 90% of the Disinterested Shares (91.97% of Total...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Saint Bella - The Outlook for Future Performance Growth Is Highly Uncertain

Increasing contract liabilities ensure SAINT BELLA's short-term performance but declining fertility rate in China pose long-term challenge.We're...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update - The Story Behind the Delay of Offer Document Despatch

​Baosteel makes solid progress in acquiring CPMC, and this type of merger is in line with the idea of integration of SOEs. Comparatively, ORG may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

L'Occitane (973.HK) - The Privatization Is About to Succeed

The Offeror has received valid acceptances that would result in Offeror holding no less than 90% of the Disinterested Shares (91.97% of Total...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Saint Bella - The Outlook for Future Performance Growth Is Highly Uncertain

Increasing contract liabilities ensure ​SAINT BELLA's short-term performance but declining fertility rate in China pose long-term challenge.We're...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals - Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

​Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baosteel makes solid progress in acquiring CPMC, and this type of merger is in line with the idea of integration of SOEs. Comparatively, ORG may...

TYK has differentiated indication for core product, but it faces uncertainty in R&D. Cash shortage is an issue. We recommend a more cautious...

Increasing contract liabilities ensure SAINT BELLA's short-term performance but declining fertility rate in China pose long-term challenge.We're...

Elpiscience's strong capital operation capabilities are no longer enough as investors shift focus to cash flow and drug sales revenue. We have...