Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guolian Securities Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued their rise with liquid Hs outperforming their As by 3.8%. </li>
<li>There were some BIG moves the past two weeks and Average AH Premia are now the lowest in nearly four years vs near 5yr wides less than 12 weeks ago. </li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued their rise with liquid Hs outperforming their As by 3.8%. 
There were some BIG moves the past two weeks and Average AH Premia are now the lowest in nearly four years vs near 5yr wides less than 12 weeks ago. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 May 2024):  Hs Rally Huge Vs As, Again. Avg A/H Premium Lowest in 4yrs

Luxshare Precision Industry / Event-Driven

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and sells connectors. The Company's products are widely used in computers, communication devices, consumer electronics products and automobiles.

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 8.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Luxshare, CMB, and CATL. AH Premia now lowest in 4yrs.</li>
<li>Foreign attitudes to HK stocks different than to mainland stocks. This may continue.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 8.8bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Luxshare, CMB, and CATL. AH Premia now lowest in 4yrs.
Foreign attitudes to HK stocks different than to mainland stocks. This may continue.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024):

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.</li>
<li>Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell. </li>
<li>No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell. 
No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024); Banks, Banks, Banks, Tencent, and Big SOEs

David Blennerhassett

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd develops a variety of drugs.  The Company develops and sells drugs for anti-virus, metabolic diseases, cardiovascular, and more.

<ul>
<li>A "Privatisation via a Merger by Absorption" is nothing new in Hong Kong. But the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0510/2024051001146.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Offer consideration</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC (1558 HK)</a>'s minorities is in unlisted scrip - that's new. </li>
<li>The Offeror holds 51.41% in Yichang HEC. Founder Guo Meilan and her son Zhang Yushuai control 62.12% of the Offeror. Yichang HEC shareholders are being offered 0.263614 "Offeror H shares".</li>
<li>These consideration shares are unlisted. An independent valuer backs out an implied scrip value of HK$18.12-HK$20.60/share. This is a super complicated, overwrought deal. With numerous unknowns. I'd vote this down. </li>
</ul>


A "Privatisation via a Merger by Absorption" is nothing new in Hong Kong. But the Offer consideration for Yichang HEC (1558 HK)'s minorities is in unlisted scrip - that's new. 
The Offeror holds 51.41% in Yichang HEC. Founder Guo Meilan and her son Zhang Yushuai control 62.12% of the Offeror. Yichang HEC shareholders are being offered 0.263614 "Offeror H shares".
These consideration shares are unlisted. An independent valuer backs out an implied scrip value of HK$18.12-HK$20.60/share. This is a super complicated, overwrought deal. With numerous unknowns. I'd vote this down. 


Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

Quiddity Advisors
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 May 2024): Hs Rally Huge Vs As, Again. Avg A/H Premium Lowest in 4yrs

AH Premia now the lowest, on average, for nearly four years. This is against near-5yr highs just 12wks ago. Hs are moving on foreign flows into HK...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024):

NORTHBOUND net flows continue to be positive, belying the mainland story that foreigners are being bad. But they aren't keeping pace with HK.

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024); Banks, Banks, Banks, Tencent, and Big SOEs

SOUTHBOUND's streak of weekly net inflows continues unabated. Some of the flows may be driven by Central Huijin buying banks, and some may be...

Travis Lundy

Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid

Maybe this gets up. Maybe this is worth HK$19.30/share. Too many maybes. If in, I'd vote this transaction down. If not in, I'd be looking elsewhere.

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett