Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

iShares MSCI Thailand / Debt Capital Markets

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

<ul>
<li>We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP</li>
<li>The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months</li>
<li>We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.</li>
</ul>


We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP
The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months
We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Singapore. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Capital USD Asia High Yield Bond Index.

<ul>
<li>Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.</li>
<li>We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. </li>
<li>Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.</li>
</ul>


Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.
We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. 
Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.


Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

<ul>
<li>US treasury yields fell 3-4 bps across the curve yesterday, partly easing their sharp advance last Friday.</li>
<li>Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs declined 3 bps each to 4.00% and 4.48%, respectively.</li>
<li>Equities eked out a small gain, on the back of continued US-China trade talks.</li>
</ul>


US treasury yields fell 3-4 bps across the curve yesterday, partly easing their sharp advance last Friday.
Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs declined 3 bps each to 4.00% and 4.48%, respectively.
Equities eked out a small gain, on the back of continued US-China trade talks.


iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond / Debt Capital Markets

iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities between three and seven years.

<ul>
<li>We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.</li>
<li>Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term</li>
<li>We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.</li>
</ul>


We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.
Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term
We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.


Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile

Biocon Ltd., is an integrated biotechnology enterprise with a presence in biopharmaceuticals, enzymes, custom research and clinical research. The Company's pharmaceutical products include statins, immunosuppressants and anti-diabetic drugs. Biocon also manufactures specialty enzymes and new enzyme applications besides providing clinical and custom research services.

Biocon Biologics launched a roadshow last week to market its USD 5NC2 144A/RegS notes offering. The expected issue rating is BB/BB by S&P/Fitch. The proceeds will be used to refinance an outstanding syndicated loan facility obtained for the acquisition of Viatris' global biosimilars business for USD 3.335 bn in May 2022. We see fair value for the proposed 5NC2 bonds at 7%.

  Biocon Biologics launched a roadshow last week to market its USD 5NC2 144A/RegS notes offering. The expected issue rating is BB/BB by S&P/Fitch. The proceeds will be used to refinance an outstanding syndicated loan facility obtained for the acquisition of Viatris' global biosimilars business for USD 3.335 bn in May 2022.   We see fair value for the proposed 5NC2 bonds at 7%. 

Biocon Biologics - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics