Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Singapore. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Capital USD Asia High Yield Bond Index.

<ul>
<li>A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.</li>
<li>We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.</li>
<li>Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.</li>
</ul>


A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.
We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.
Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.


THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.</li>
<li>The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.</li>
<li>A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.</li>
</ul>


Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.
The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.
A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.


Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

<ul>
<li>Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.</li>
<li>While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. </li>
<li>We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.</li>
</ul>


Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.
While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. 
We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.


Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF / Debt Capital Markets

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index.

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB US)

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF

<ul><li>Markets have seen a strong run up in asset prices at the start of the year, with some tech wobbles impacting EM fixed income to a lesser degree.</li><li>Key drivers for EM fixed income include structural improvements in EM currencies and a more cyclical theme of global growth improvement.</li><li>Despite concerns about tech stock disruptions and valuations, the overall outlook for EM growth remains positive, with a focus on EM currencies and local bonds.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Markets have seen a strong run up in asset prices at the start of the year, with some tech wobbles impacting EM fixed income to a lesser degree.Key drivers for EM fixed income include structural improvements in EM currencies and a more cyclical theme of global growth improvement.Despite concerns about tech stock disruptions and valuations, the overall outlook for EM growth remains positive, with a focus on EM currencies and local bonds.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Getting fully back on the EM horse

iShares MSCI Thailand / Debt Capital Markets

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

<ul>
<li>We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP</li>
<li>The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months</li>
<li>We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.</li>
</ul>


We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP
The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months
We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

Debt Capital Markets
Debt Capital Markets Insights

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Pad Thai Uncertainty

Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...

Bondcritic

EM Fixed Income: Getting fully back on the EM horse

Asset prices rose sharply at the beginning of the year, with some volatility in tech stocks, but EM fixed income remained stable, driven by factors...

At Any Rate

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

​Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

​Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Pad Thai Uncertainty

​Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...

Bondcritic

EM Fixed Income: Getting fully back on the EM horse

Asset prices rose sharply at the beginning of the year, with some volatility in tech stocks, but EM fixed income remained stable, driven by factors...

At Any Rate

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

​12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...