Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the world</li><li>Unlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstances</li><li>Dollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the worldUnlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstancesDollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Tax receipts post-tax day are tracking about 15% above last year's pace, below 2022 levels.</li><li>Increase in electronic filings leads to quicker processing of tax receipts.</li><li>TGA balances have increased by $250 billion to $930 billion, in line with 2022 trends.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Tax receipts post-tax day are tracking about 15% above last year's pace, below 2022 levels.Increase in electronic filings leads to quicker processing of tax receipts.TGA balances have increased by $250 billion to $930 billion, in line with 2022 trends.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Tax Season, Debt Ceiling, and Reserves

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul><li>Russia has pledged to cut oil output to 9 million barrels per day by June, potentially causing Brent oil prices to rise to $90 in April and above $100 in the future</li><li>The US has the option to release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate the impact of high oil prices</li><li>SPR inventories currently cover 188 days of net import demand for crude oil, suggesting that the reserve may not need to be as large as it once was and could be used for funding infrastructure and federal spending priorities</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Russia has pledged to cut oil output to 9 million barrels per day by June, potentially causing Brent oil prices to rise to $90 in April and above $100 in the futureThe US has the option to release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate the impact of high oil pricesSPR inventories currently cover 188 days of net import demand for crude oil, suggesting that the reserve may not need to be as large as it once was and could be used for funding infrastructure and federal spending prioritiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

<ul><li>Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release</li><li>Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed</li><li>Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP releaseMarket leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by FedYen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

<ul><li>Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the year</li><li>Labor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertainty</li><li>Options markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trend</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's testimony to Congress and the non farm payrolls report suggest global central bank easing may occur in the second half of the yearLabor market showing signs of moderating, leading to declining yields and high policy uncertaintyOptions markets imply a wide range of scenarios, indicating high policy uncertainty and declining volatility trendThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

At Any Rate
Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets
• At Any Rate

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

The strong dollar is not a major concern for the US or the Federal Reserve, but could pose challenges for the rest of the world, making coordinated...

At Any Rate

US Rates: Tax Season, Debt Ceiling, and Reserves

Despite a significant amount of treasury coupons settling, funding volumes remained stable, tax receipts are tracking above last year's pace, and T...

At Any Rate

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

Russia has pledged to deepen its oil output cut, which may lead to increased oil prices and potentially reach $200 by September, with the US...

At Any Rate

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

The Sun Is the Same, in a Relative Way, but Vol Is Lower

Last week's key events included Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony and the non farm payrolls report, with a focus on the need for more data...

At Any Rate