Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.</li>
<li>The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.</li>
<li>A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.</li>
</ul>


Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.
The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.
A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.


Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

<ul>
<li>Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.</li>
<li>While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. </li>
<li>We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.</li>
</ul>


Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.
While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. 
We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.</li>
<li>Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.</li>
<li>We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.
Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.
We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.


<ul>
<li>We are now in late July and Thailand still does not have a new Prime Minister (PM) yet.</li>
<li>We believe the future is very uncertain from now until next May when the senate power to elect the PM ends.</li>
<li>The uncertainty is by no means positive for Thailand’s capital market and our view toward any Thai assets remain negative in the near term.</li>
</ul>


We are now in late July and Thailand still does not have a new Prime Minister (PM) yet.
We believe the future is very uncertain from now until next May when the senate power to elect the PM ends.
The uncertainty is by no means positive for Thailand’s capital market and our view toward any Thai assets remain negative in the near term.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Going into a third week after Thailand’s general election on May 14th, the Thai stock market softened and the bond yields rose on uncertainty over the government coalition.</li>
<li>We believe the Move Forward Party (MFP)’s victory signifies a movement to reform, not just a political campaign.</li>
<li>The muddle-through scenario could see Thailand without the new government until May 2024</li>
</ul>


Going into a third week after Thailand’s general election on May 14th, the Thai stock market softened and the bond yields rose on uncertainty over the government coalition.
We believe the Move Forward Party (MFP)’s victory signifies a movement to reform, not just a political campaign.
The muddle-through scenario could see Thailand without the new government until May 2024


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THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 (CTHAI1U5 CORP)

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Pad Thai Uncertainty

Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...

Bondcritic

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

Thailand : A Judicial War Against Pita

The parliament vote to exclude Pita from the PM vote on July 19th highlights Thailand’s country risk, not understood by many analysts. The...

Bondcritic

Thailand : The Election Sabuy Sabuy

Thailand is in an odd situation where the collective voice of 250 appointed senators can override the whole election process.

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

​Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Pad Thai Uncertainty

​Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...

Bondcritic

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

Thailand : A Judicial War Against Pita

The parliament vote to exclude Pita from the PM vote on July 19th highlights Thailand’s country risk, not understood by many analysts. The...

Bondcritic

Thailand : The Election Sabuy Sabuy

Thailand is in an odd situation where the collective voice of 250 appointed senators can override the whole election process.

Bondcritic

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Thailand's political uncertainty post-election could impact economic outlook, despite short-term rate cuts. Possible downgrade in credit rating...