Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.</li>
<li>We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.</li>
<li>Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025. </li>
</ul>


The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.
We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.
Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025. 


Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.</li>
<li>Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.</li>
<li>We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.
Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.
We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.


Debt Capital Markets

THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we are revisiting the Thai bond market, as per requests from our Thai readers, to see the impact of the global rate trajectory on Thailand.</li>
<li>The Thai bond market will remain unattractive to foreign institutional investors, in our view.</li>
<li>The attempt to increase yield should involve a material change in Thailand’s financial structure and regulatory mindset.</li>
</ul>


Here we are revisiting the Thai bond market, as per requests from our Thai readers, to see the impact of the global rate trajectory on Thailand.
The Thai bond market will remain unattractive to foreign institutional investors, in our view.
The attempt to increase yield should involve a material change in Thailand’s financial structure and regulatory mindset.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

<ul>
<li>We are now in late July and Thailand still does not have a new Prime Minister (PM) yet.</li>
<li>We believe the future is very uncertain from now until next May when the senate power to elect the PM ends.</li>
<li>The uncertainty is by no means positive for Thailand’s capital market and our view toward any Thai assets remain negative in the near term.</li>
</ul>


We are now in late July and Thailand still does not have a new Prime Minister (PM) yet.
We believe the future is very uncertain from now until next May when the senate power to elect the PM ends.
The uncertainty is by no means positive for Thailand’s capital market and our view toward any Thai assets remain negative in the near term.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Going into a third week after Thailand’s general election on May 14th, the Thai stock market softened and the bond yields rose on uncertainty over the government coalition.</li>
<li>We believe the Move Forward Party (MFP)’s victory signifies a movement to reform, not just a political campaign.</li>
<li>The muddle-through scenario could see Thailand without the new government until May 2024</li>
</ul>


Going into a third week after Thailand’s general election on May 14th, the Thai stock market softened and the bond yields rose on uncertainty over the government coalition.
We believe the Move Forward Party (MFP)’s victory signifies a movement to reform, not just a political campaign.
The muddle-through scenario could see Thailand without the new government until May 2024


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THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 (CTHAI1U5 CORP)

Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...

Bondcritic

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

Close to home, we are looking into how the recent global rate trajectory will impact Thailand. We still believe Thai bonds will remain unattractive...

Bondcritic

Thailand : A Judicial War Against Pita

The parliament vote to exclude Pita from the PM vote on July 19th highlights Thailand’s country risk, not understood by many analysts. The...

Bondcritic

Thailand : The Election Sabuy Sabuy

Thailand is in an odd situation where the collective voice of 250 appointed senators can override the whole election process.

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

​The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...

Bondcritic

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

Close to home, we are looking into how the recent global rate trajectory will impact Thailand. We still believe Thai bonds will remain unattractive...

Bondcritic

Thailand : A Judicial War Against Pita

The parliament vote to exclude Pita from the PM vote on July 19th highlights Thailand’s country risk, not understood by many analysts. The...

Bondcritic

Thailand : The Election Sabuy Sabuy

Thailand is in an odd situation where the collective voice of 250 appointed senators can override the whole election process.

Bondcritic

The impact of Donald Trump's victory in 2024 on rates in 2025, with expectations of a recession in 2026 and declining consumption but sticky...