Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Singapore. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Capital USD Asia High Yield Bond Index.

<ul>
<li>A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.</li>
<li>We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.</li>
<li>Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.</li>
</ul>


A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.
We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.
Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.


THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.</li>
<li>The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.</li>
<li>A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.</li>
</ul>


Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.
The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.
A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.


Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

<ul>
<li>Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.</li>
<li>While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. </li>
<li>We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.</li>
</ul>


Thailand’s recent general election has introduced political uncertainty that could weigh heavily on the country’s economic and financial outlook.
While rate cuts are supportive in the short term, structural weaknesses remain unresolved. 
We cannot rule out the possibility of further downgrade of the country’s rating to BBB+/Baa2 this year.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian USD high-yield bonds in our sample have outperformed on an improving operating environment in India.</li>
<li>Our base case scenario calls for a stabilized rate environment in 2026 which makes fixed rate bonds fully-valued, in our view.</li>
<li>We argue for a reduction in Asian bond exposure, and not a total abandonment.</li>
</ul>


Indian USD high-yield bonds in our sample have outperformed on an improving operating environment in India.
Our base case scenario calls for a stabilized rate environment in 2026 which makes fixed rate bonds fully-valued, in our view.
We argue for a reduction in Asian bond exposure, and not a total abandonment.


Credit

Health and Happiness (H&H) is a global family nutrition company that manufactures and sells premium nutrition and wellness products across adult, baby, and pet segments. Its offerings include infant formulas, probiotic supplements, vitamins, health supplements, and pet nutrition. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1999.

<ul>
<li>Here we introduce Modtris as a drastic approach to credit analysis.</li>
<li>Modrist uses historical financial data to compute simultation of multi-dimentional dynamics.</li>
<li>Fair value of H&amp;H, according to Modtris, is quite close to the current price. We see Modtrist as an alternative to arrive at bond fair value without human bias.</li>
</ul>


Here we introduce Modtris as a drastic approach to credit analysis.
Modrist uses historical financial data to compute simultation of multi-dimentional dynamics.
Fair value of H&amp;H, according to Modtris, is quite close to the current price. We see Modtrist as an alternative to arrive at bond fair value without human bias.
