Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Commodities

Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock usually occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds or coal seams. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure. Coal is composed primarily of carbon along with variable quantities of other elements, chiefly hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen. A fossil fuel, coal forms when dead plant matter is converted into peat, which in turn is converted into lignite, then sub-bituminous coal, after that bituminous coal, and lastly anthracite. This involves biological and geological processes that take place over a long period.

<ul><li>Global dry bulk trade is facing its sharpest contraction in nearly a decade, with year-to-date 2025 volumes down 1.5%, according to DBX data.</li><li>This decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, rising domestic production in key markets, geopolitical instability, and weather-related disruptions.</li><li>Coal, iron ore, and grain exports have borne the brunt, while bauxite flows remain robust. </li></ul>

Global dry bulk trade is facing its sharpest contraction in nearly a decade, with year-to-date 2025 volumes down 1.5%, according to DBX data.This decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, rising domestic production in key markets, geopolitical instability, and weather-related disruptions.Coal, iron ore, and grain exports have borne the brunt, while bauxite flows remain robust. 

Global Dry Bulk Trade Contraction and Market Pressures: White Paper May 2025 Issue

<ul><li>In April 2025, global coal markets showed a diverging trend between thermal and metallurgical segments.</li><li>Thermal coal remained under pressure amid softening prices, high stockpiles in China and India, and collapsing power demand in Europe, where electricity generation fell sharply due to warm weather, a major blackout in Spain, and ongoing economic stagnation in Germany.</li><li>As a result, API2 and API4 prices slipped further, with month-ahead API2 contracts trading at $93/ton, API4 at $88/ton, and Newcastle coal easing to $95/ton, despite a brief rebound to $99 mid-month.</li></ul>

In April 2025, global coal markets showed a diverging trend between thermal and metallurgical segments.Thermal coal remained under pressure amid softening prices, high stockpiles in China and India, and collapsing power demand in Europe, where electricity generation fell sharply due to warm weather, a major blackout in Spain, and ongoing economic stagnation in Germany.As a result, API2 and API4 prices slipped further, with month-ahead API2 contracts trading at $93/ton, API4 at $88/ton, and Newcastle coal easing to $95/ton, despite a brief rebound to $99 mid-month.

<ul><li>Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.</li><li>Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA's forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.</li><li>Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.</li></ul>

Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA's forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Outperformers: Uranium, Coal &amp; Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers, which benefitted from renewed institutional interest and long-term structural tailwinds.</li>
<li>Underperformers: Gold Miners, Energy, and Select Coal. Despite a +5.2% increase in the gold price, key miners such as Barrick Gold (-7.6%) and Agnico Eagle (-0.9%) underperformed</li>
<li>Equities vs Commodities. There was a notable decoupling between equity and commodity performance this month.</li>
</ul>


Outperformers: Uranium, Coal &amp; Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers, which benefitted from renewed institutional interest and long-term structural tailwinds.
Underperformers: Gold Miners, Energy, and Select Coal. Despite a +5.2% increase in the gold price, key miners such as Barrick Gold (-7.6%) and Agnico Eagle (-0.9%) underperformed
Equities vs Commodities. There was a notable decoupling between equity and commodity performance this month.


<ul><li>Production Domestic Power Steel Stocks S&amp;D China's power generation reached 1492 TWh for the January-February period, down 200 TWh (-12%) month-on-month but up slightly by 5 TWh (+0%) year-on-year.</li><li>The relatively subdued output reflects a sluggish domestic economy and an unusually mild winter during the period.</li><li>With the exception of solar, which held steady, all sources of power generation declined in January and February compared to December.</li></ul>

Production Domestic Power Steel Stocks S&amp;D China's power generation reached 1492 TWh for the January-February period, down 200 TWh (-12%) month-on-month but up slightly by 5 TWh (+0%) year-on-year.The relatively subdued output reflects a sluggish domestic economy and an unusually mild winter during the period.With the exception of solar, which held steady, all sources of power generation declined in January and February compared to December.

China Coal Monitor (19 March 2025):  A Monthly Update from the DBX Research Coal Observatory