Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Actinogen Medical Limited operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the treatment of alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment. Actinogen Medical develops a novel drug to treat the condition and other age-related neurodegenerative diseases.

Actinogen announced a capital increase of up to A$8.9m on 3 May, consisting of a A$5.0m (gross) placement along with a shareholder rights offering (‘entitlement offer’) designed to raise up to A$3.9m (gross) from existing shareholders. The closing date of the rights offer is 29 May and, given that Actinogen shares are currently trading at c A$0.028, we assume full exercise of the rights offering in Q424 (Q2 CY24). The company expects that the proceeds (assuming full exercise of the rights offering) will extend its operating runway beyond the interim results release of the first 100 patients of the XanaMIA Phase IIb study in cognitive impairment (CI) in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD), expected in mid-CY25. These results and the results from the XanaCIDD Phase IIa study in patients with CI associated with major depressive disorder (MDD), expected in early Q3 CY24, represent major potential value inflection points, and Actinogen is now funded past these two key catalysts. Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) is A$544m (vs A$528m previously).

Actinogen announced a capital increase of up to A$8.9m on 3 May, consisting of a A$5.0m (gross) placement along with a shareholder rights offering (‘entitlement offer’) designed to raise up to A$3.9m (gross) from existing shareholders. The closing date of the rights offer is 29 May and, given that Actinogen shares are currently trading at c A$0.028, we assume full exercise of the rights offering in Q424 (Q2 CY24). The company expects that the proceeds (assuming full exercise of the rights offering) will extend its operating runway beyond the interim results release of the first 100 patients of the XanaMIA Phase IIb study in cognitive impairment (CI) in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD), expected in mid-CY25. These results and the results from the XanaCIDD Phase IIa study in patients with CI associated with major depressive disorder (MDD), expected in early Q3 CY24, represent major potential value inflection points, and Actinogen is now funded past these two key catalysts. Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) is A$544m (vs A$528m previously).

Actinogen Medical - Funding in place through key catalysts

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) has been managed by Lindsell Train since the beginning of 2001. During his long tenure, approaching a quarter of a century, lead manager Nick Train has steadily acquired a significant 2.9% personal holding in the trust, which is a considerable amount of ‘skin in the game’. From the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2023, FGT’s 9.0% annual NAV total return was comfortably ahead of the UK market’s 5.1% annual total return. However, Train and deputy manager Madeline Wright, who was appointed in 2019, have underperformed for the last three years. The managers will continue with their successful long-term strategy of running a concentrated portfolio; Train’s philosophy is that wealth creation requires a concentrated approach, while diversification is necessary for wealth protection.

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) has been managed by Lindsell Train since the beginning of 2001. During his long tenure, approaching a quarter of a century, lead manager Nick Train has steadily acquired a significant 2.9% personal holding in the trust, which is a considerable amount of ‘skin in the game’. From the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2023, FGT’s 9.0% annual NAV total return was comfortably ahead of the UK market’s 5.1% annual total return. However, Train and deputy manager Madeline Wright, who was appointed in 2019, have underperformed for the last three years. The managers will continue with their successful long-term strategy of running a concentrated portfolio; Train’s philosophy is that wealth creation requires a concentrated approach, while diversification is necessary for wealth protection.

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust - Train puts his money where his mouth is

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Newron Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

Newron Pharmaceuticals SpA is a research and development biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on and develops therapies for the Central Nervous System (CNS) in cases such as Parkinson's disease, neuropathic low back pain and other cognitive disorders.

Newron Pharmaceuticals has released additional data from its Phase II/III trial (study 008A), providing further evidence to support evenamide’s potential in schizophrenia. After four weeks of treatment, the mean score on the Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGI-C) scale, a key secondary efficacy measure, was 3.3 versus 3.5 for placebo, with the lower score translating to more favourable outcomes. Also, 31.3% of patients rated ‘much improved’ versus 17.3% on placebo. The update indicated that all the major efficacy measures increased over time, similar to the trend seen in the Phase II 014/015 study, albeit in a larger, randomised, placebo-controlled setting. The results highlight the drug’s potential as an effective long-term treatment in a segment with limited treatment options. As previously discussed, a potentially pivotal Phase III study in treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) (study 017) is in the works, and expected to commence within 2024.

Newron Pharmaceuticals has released additional data from its Phase II/III trial (study 008A), providing further evidence to support evenamide’s potential in schizophrenia. After four weeks of treatment, the mean score on the Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGI-C) scale, a key secondary efficacy measure, was 3.3 versus 3.5 for placebo, with the lower score translating to more favourable outcomes. Also, 31.3% of patients rated ‘much improved’ versus 17.3% on placebo. The update indicated that all the major efficacy measures increased over time, similar to the trend seen in the Phase II 014/015 study, albeit in a larger, randomised, placebo-controlled setting. The results highlight the drug’s potential as an effective long-term treatment in a segment with limited treatment options. As previously discussed, a potentially pivotal Phase III study in treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) (study 017) is in the works, and expected to commence within 2024.

Newron Pharmaceuticals - Evenamide potential for treatment of schizophrenia

JDC Group AG is an independent financial services provider. The Company provides advice and financial products throughout Germany, Austria and Eastern Europe.

JDC Group (JDC) reported strong Q124 results. Revenue growth accelerated to 21.6% from 10% in FY23, driven by its Advisortech division (+22.6%). In terms of profitability, the EBITDA margin increased to 7.6% from 7.3% in Q123. JDC reiterated its FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m, 24% y-o-y growth at the midpoint, partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten Financial Network, which management expects to contribute more than €18m in revenues this year. EBITDA is also expected to increase to a guided range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). We make no changes to our estimates. Our DCF provides a valuation of €34.0/share.

JDC Group (JDC) reported strong Q124 results. Revenue growth accelerated to 21.6% from 10% in FY23, driven by its Advisortech division (+22.6%). In terms of profitability, the EBITDA margin increased to 7.6% from 7.3% in Q123. JDC reiterated its FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m, 24% y-o-y growth at the midpoint, partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten Financial Network, which management expects to contribute more than €18m in revenues this year. EBITDA is also expected to increase to a guided range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). We make no changes to our estimates. Our DCF provides a valuation of €34.0/share.