Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.</li>
<li>In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).</li>
<li>Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.</li>
</ul>


FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.
In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).
Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.


Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

Equity Bottom-Up

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

<ul>
<li>Over past 10 weeks, India derated sharply. Headline forward PE is down 10% and valuations of some stocks and sectors more so. India's valuations are now close to long-term average.</li>
<li>We repeat our 10th August study of screening stocks with decent and robust growth forecast, reasonable valuations, healthy balance sheets. In August, 20 stocks showed up; now there are 37.</li>
<li>23 of these 37 are financials, more so among large-caps (8 of 11). Mid-caps (7 of 16 are non-financial) are more diverse. Non-financials dominate among Small-caps (8 out of 10).</li>
</ul>


Over past 10 weeks, India derated sharply. Headline forward PE is down 10% and valuations of some stocks and sectors more so. India's valuations are now close to long-term average.
We repeat our 10th August study of screening stocks with decent and robust growth forecast, reasonable valuations, healthy balance sheets. In August, 20 stocks showed up; now there are 37.
23 of these 37 are financials, more so among large-caps (8 of 11). Mid-caps (7 of 16 are non-financial) are more diverse. Non-financials dominate among Small-caps (8 out of 10).


Asian Equities: India Focus List After the Recent Dislocation - Financials and Small/Mid-Caps Abound

<ul>
<li>Malaysia's PE and P/BV are at significant discounts to their long-term means. Thailand is at a small discount. Indonesia and Philippines are at very large discounts to their long-term averages.</li>
<li>Singapore's PE and P/BV are at large premiums to long-term averages. Despite the improvement in governance and high dividend yield, they don't seem justified by forward EPS growth and ROE.</li>
<li>In the near term, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia could rerate. However, "higher for longer" US yields could prevent significant rerating of the first two. Thai valuations could stay flat for now.</li>
</ul>


Malaysia's PE and P/BV are at significant discounts to their long-term means. Thailand is at a small discount. Indonesia and Philippines are at very large discounts to their long-term averages.
Singapore's PE and P/BV are at large premiums to long-term averages. Despite the improvement in governance and high dividend yield, they don't seem justified by forward EPS growth and ROE.
In the near term, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia could rerate. However, "higher for longer" US yields could prevent significant rerating of the first two. Thai valuations could stay flat for now.


Asian Equities: Valuations in ASEAN Markets Are More Divergent than Rest of Asia

<ul>
<li>Asia's PE at 10% discount to long-term mean, driven by Korea, Taiwan's earnings boom. P/BV is at 10% premium. All market valuations barring Taiwan are near or below long-term means.</li>
<li>Considering current valuations relative to long-term averages, Korea seems destined for rerating. Onshore China seems near bottom. HK looks attractive but the ongoing DM yield spike could keep valuations depressed.</li>
<li>Indian valuations, marginally above long-term means, look attractive but could remain depressed while DM rates stay high and Dollar stays strong. Taiwan valuations are not discounting a cyclical earnings peak.</li>
</ul>


Asia's PE at 10% discount to long-term mean, driven by Korea, Taiwan's earnings boom. P/BV is at 10% premium. All market valuations barring Taiwan are near or below long-term means.
Considering current valuations relative to long-term averages, Korea seems destined for rerating. Onshore China seems near bottom. HK looks attractive but the ongoing DM yield spike could keep valuations depressed.
Indian valuations, marginally above long-term means, look attractive but could remain depressed while DM rates stay high and Dollar stays strong. Taiwan valuations are not discounting a cyclical earnings peak.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion Done for Some Markets, Not for Others

<ul>
<li>In a world of surging interest rates, highly leveraged markets, sectors and stocks are more vulnerable than unleveraged ones. The former set will have skyrocketing capital costs dampening their profitability.</li>
<li>China (86% net debt-equity in 2025), Thailand (105%) and Philippines (118%) are the most leveraged Asian markets. The least leveraged are Taiwan (54%), India (65%), Indonesia (66%) and Korea (68%).</li>
<li>Thai telecom, Philippines transportation, Philippines energy, Korean distribution services, Philippines telecom, Indonesian transportation are the most-leveraged market-sectors. Singapore health technology, Indonesian commercial services, Taiwan energy, Indonesian industrials are the least-leveraged.</li>
</ul>


In a world of surging interest rates, highly leveraged markets, sectors and stocks are more vulnerable than unleveraged ones. The former set will have skyrocketing capital costs dampening their profitability.
China (86% net debt-equity in 2025), Thailand (105%) and Philippines (118%) are the most leveraged Asian markets. The least leveraged are Taiwan (54%), India (65%), Indonesia (66%) and Korea (68%).
Thai telecom, Philippines transportation, Philippines energy, Korean distribution services, Philippines telecom, Indonesian transportation are the most-leveraged market-sectors. Singapore health technology, Indonesian commercial services, Taiwan energy, Indonesian industrials are the least-leveraged.
