Guasty Winds Investment Ideas, Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

I am a full-time private investor, ex-L/S. I document my investment portfolio decisions and share my work here.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

<ul><li>After spectating DG for some time, I bought a small starter position in June. It is not often that you get a chance to buy a compounder like this 35% from its highs.</li><li>Historically it has paid to buy the dips on DG, so I figured I would buy now and ask questions later.</li><li>This time it has not paid, at all. My average was ~$185 and I sold my stock last monday at $168. I know that some of my subs also follow the stock so I thought I would collect my notes and write up a few paragraphs.</li></ul>

After spectating DG for some time, I bought a small starter position in June. It is not often that you get a chance to buy a compounder like this 35% from its highs.Historically it has paid to buy the dips on DG, so I figured I would buy now and ask questions later.This time it has not paid, at all. My average was ~$185 and I sold my stock last monday at $168. I know that some of my subs also follow the stock so I thought I would collect my notes and write up a few paragraphs.

Better HoldCo, Inc. (“Better”) and Aurora Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (“Aurora”) business combination.

<ul><li>I am short AURC (Aurora Acquisition Corp), the SPAC that will be bringing Better.com to market next week. I think the fair value of the company is ~81 cents - it is currently trading at $32.</li><li>Yes, borrow is hard to come by - but it does exist in small quantities. When the DeSpac occurs next week, if the stock doesn’t collapse 98% on day one, then borrow should be accesible.</li><li>Better CEO/founder Vishal Garg has a long history of bankruptcies, deception and fraud accusations.</li></ul>

I am short AURC (Aurora Acquisition Corp), the SPAC that will be bringing Better.com to market next week. I think the fair value of the company is ~81 cents - it is currently trading at $32.Yes, borrow is hard to come by - but it does exist in small quantities. When the DeSpac occurs next week, if the stock doesn’t collapse 98% on day one, then borrow should be accesible.Better CEO/founder Vishal Garg has a long history of bankruptcies, deception and fraud accusations.

SmartRent Inc operates as an enterprise smart home automation company. The Company develops software and hardware that empowers property owners, managers, and homebuilders to manage, protect, and automate daily operational processes. SmartRent serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>SmartRent’s 2Q was a bit of a head-scratcher. The significant growth in sales from 1Q didn’t carryover into 2Q, with top-line decelerating from ~74% YoY in Q1 to 26% YoY in 2Q.</li><li>Trends of key KPIs suggest deterioration in the underlying business is continuing and in fact worsening, as we have seen from industry peers recently.</li><li>The exact cause of such is unclear given management’s hesitance to provide clear commentary.</li></ul>

SmartRent’s 2Q was a bit of a head-scratcher. The significant growth in sales from 1Q didn’t carryover into 2Q, with top-line decelerating from ~74% YoY in Q1 to 26% YoY in 2Q.Trends of key KPIs suggest deterioration in the underlying business is continuing and in fact worsening, as we have seen from industry peers recently.The exact cause of such is unclear given management’s hesitance to provide clear commentary.

Applied Blockchain Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

Applied Blockchain, Inc. operates as a technology company. The Company focuses on Ethereum and Altcoins. Applied Blockchain serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>APLD released 4Q earnings last night. The stock performed well, +14%.</li>
<li>The key highlight was the huge guidance. In this post I will run through how the numbers make no sense.</li>
<li>
<p><em>Jamestown, North Dakota (JT) - 100MW - </em>JT has been operating since 2022. It has ~100MW of capacity and has been running at full capacity over the past two quarters, according to comments made on the company’s 3Q and 4Q earnings calls. Here is a snip for the 3Q call.</p>
</li>
</ul>


APLD released 4Q earnings last night. The stock performed well, +14%.
The key highlight was the huge guidance. In this post I will run through how the numbers make no sense.

Jamestown, North Dakota (JT) - 100MW - JT has been operating since 2022. It has ~100MW of capacity and has been running at full capacity over the past two quarters, according to comments made on the company’s 3Q and 4Q earnings calls. Here is a snip for the 3Q call.



Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

<ul>
<li>Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.</li>
<li>In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.</li>
<li>I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.</li>
</ul>


Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.
In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.
I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.
