Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

<ul>
<li>After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.</li>
<li>A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.</li>
<li>Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.</li>
</ul>


After dropping by half, Tokyo Electron's share price has bounced. But it is still vulnerable to cutbacks in AI-related investments and tariff-induced recession.
A positive scenario has net profit rising by 8% in FY Mar-26. In a negative scenario, it drops by 25%. We take the positive view.
Innovations in manufacturing point toward a big step up in profit margins by the end of the decade. But watch out for a cyclical downturn between now and then.


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals Corporation develops and mines non-ferrous metal resources. The Company develops, mines, smelts, refines, and markets non-ferrous such as copper, gold, and silver. JX Advanced Metals also manufactures and sells copper foils, semiconductor materials, precision-rolled coppers, copper-alloy products, and special steel products.

<ul>
<li>JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.</li>
<li>ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.</li>
</ul>


JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.
ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.
Our SOTP valuation suggests that JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.


JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Event-Driven

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.</li>
<li>We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.</li>
<li>If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.</li>
</ul>



Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.


Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

<ul>
<li>JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.</li>
<li>Having split from the parent ENEOS, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.</li>
<li>The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.</li>
</ul>


JX Advance Metals, a unit of Japanese oil giant ENEOS plans to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. ENEOS will sell down a part of its stake and raise US$3.0bn.
Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality.
The company’s earnings declined in FY03/2024, however, 9MFY03/2025 results show that earnings are on a recovery driven by improving demand coupled with structural reforms undertaken by the company.


JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

<ul>
<li>FY Mar-25 guidance has been raised again after strong 3Q results. Growth should continue next fiscal year with rising demand from TSMC. </li>
<li>Sales to Chinese customers bounced back strongly last quarter, defying predictions. Capacity adds and process upgrades should continue to drive demand from China.</li>
<li>FPD, PCB and printing equipment are now profitable and should remain so. More efficient production and slower growth in depreciation should also support the operating margin.</li>
</ul>


FY Mar-25 guidance has been raised again after strong 3Q results. Growth should continue next fiscal year with rising demand from TSMC. 
Sales to Chinese customers bounced back strongly last quarter, defying predictions. Capacity adds and process upgrades should continue to drive demand from China.
FPD, PCB and printing equipment are now profitable and should remain so. More efficient production and slower growth in depreciation should also support the operating margin.


Screen Holdings (7735 JP): 25%+ Upside Potential

LightStream Research
Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

After dropping by half, the share price has bounced. Sharply lower growth has been priced in, but recession perhaps not. Manufacturing innovation...

Scott Foster

JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality. Has taken...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): 25%+ Upside Potential

FY Mar-25 guidance been raised and growth to continue in FY Mar-26 with capex up at TSMC and strong sales in China. Die shrinks driving demand for...

Scott Foster

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Buy if You're Not Afraid of Recession

After dropping by half, the share price has bounced. Sharply lower growth has been priced in, but recession perhaps not. Manufacturing innovation...

Scott Foster

JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

​JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Sapporo's 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism's 300% Gains

The 300% upside driven by investor activism is nearing its conclusion, though some upside remains from potential revisions to earnings guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JX Advance Metals IPO: Business Transformation Underway

Having split from the parent ENEOS, JX Advanced Metals is still on a business transformation and the company’s earnings show cyclicality. Has taken...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): 25%+ Upside Potential

FY Mar-25 guidance been raised and growth to continue in FY Mar-26 with capex up at TSMC and strong sales in China. Die shrinks driving demand for...

Scott Foster

JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...