External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Dollar-bullish sentiment eased for a third week in a row though last Tuesday, the latest snapshot of FX positioning from the CFTC shows.</li><li>That’s a little surprising, considering that the data cover the period when tariff concerns had eased somewhat but were still elevated.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD longs some USD2.5bn overall to just over USD31bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dollar-bullish sentiment eased for a third week in a row though last Tuesday, the latest snapshot of FX positioning from the CFTC shows.That’s a little surprising, considering that the data cover the period when tariff concerns had eased somewhat but were still elevated.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD longs some USD2.5bn overall to just over USD31bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment Softens Further

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through January 28th reflect very little aggregate change in market positioning as investors awaited developments on the tariff front.</li><li>NonCommercial (speculative) traders trimmed long USD positioning very marginally overall (just USD11mn) in the week, maintaining broadly bullish USD exposure at an elevated level (USD33.7bn).</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) accounts lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn while Real Money (institutional) accounts pared their USD longs USD1.9bn, taking total USD long positions down to USD57bn across these three trading groups, about USD4bn off peak USD bullishness seen through mid-January.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through January 28th reflect very little aggregate change in market positioning as investors awaited developments on the tariff front.NonCommercial (speculative) traders trimmed long USD positioning very marginally overall (just USD11mn) in the week, maintaining broadly bullish USD exposure at an elevated level (USD33.7bn).Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) accounts lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn while Real Money (institutional) accounts pared their USD longs USD1.9bn, taking total USD long positions down to USD57bn across these three trading groups, about USD4bn off peak USD bullishness seen through mid-January.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Positioning Little Changed Ahead of Tariffs

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

<ul><li>Markets convulsions in response to President Trump unleashing the first salvoes of what looks to be the start of significant global trade war confirm fears that another hugely disruptive period of trade friction and uncertainty is descending on markets.</li><li>FX volatility has jumped, the USD is strong—but off earlier peaks—and stocks are down sharply after brushing up close to recent (record) highs last week.</li><li>The CAD’s rebound from the overnight low near 1.48 suggests a degree of resilience in the currency to the tariff onslaught.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Markets convulsions in response to President Trump unleashing the first salvoes of what looks to be the start of significant global trade war confirm fears that another hugely disruptive period of trade friction and uncertainty is descending on markets.FX volatility has jumped, the USD is strong—but off earlier peaks—and stocks are down sharply after brushing up close to recent (record) highs last week.The CAD’s rebound from the overnight low near 1.48 suggests a degree of resilience in the currency to the tariff onslaught.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Steadies, For Now, Amid Tariff Uncertainty

<ul><li>President Trump’s comment late Thursday afternoon that the US was ready to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada all but confirms that tariffs are coming soon, absent someone finding an 11th hour off-ramp.</li><li>Markets have reacted with a degree of calm, however. This is likely because a huge amount of uncertainty still hangs over the tariff threat.</li><li>Will tariffs be universal or sector based? Immediate or imposed at some point in the future or phased in over time? </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

President Trump’s comment late Thursday afternoon that the US was ready to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada all but confirms that tariffs are coming soon, absent someone finding an 11th hour off-ramp.Markets have reacted with a degree of calm, however. This is likely because a huge amount of uncertainty still hangs over the tariff threat.Will tariffs be universal or sector based? Immediate or imposed at some point in the future or phased in over time? Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Weaker on Looming Tariff Threat

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.</li><li>Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.</li><li>The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Traders Pare USD Longs