Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Our updated state-of-the-art Central Bank Sentiment indicators are flagging important changes in communication dynamics since the beginning of the year.</li><li>We recently upgraded our sentiment measurement to a more fine-tuned and nuanced NLP model that effectively captures the meaning of Central Banker rhetoric and here share key findings.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1 in our DataHub for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Our updated state-of-the-art Central Bank Sentiment indicators are flagging important changes in communication dynamics since the beginning of the year.We recently upgraded our sentiment measurement to a more fine-tuned and nuanced NLP model that effectively captures the meaning of Central Banker rhetoric and here share key findings.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1 in our DataHub for premium subscribers.

Quant Signals: Central Bank Sentiment Indicators

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst, Steno Research

Mads Eberhardt

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst

Crypto

Ethereum is an open-source, public, blockchain-based distributed computing platform featuring smart contract (scripting) functionality. It provides a decentralized Turing-complete virtual machine, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), which can execute scripts using an international network of public nodes. Ethereum also provides a cryptocurrency token called "ether", which can be transferred between accounts and used to compensate participant nodes for computations performed. "Gas", an internal transaction pricing mechanism, is used to mitigate spam and allocate resources on the network.

<ul><li>Today, we need to address two critical topics, both connected to the U.S. regulatory landscape and, unsurprisingly, to crypto.</li><li>Firstly, let us discuss the pending decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding an Ethereum spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).</li><li>The SEC is poised to approve or reject the VanEck Ethereum ETF application by May 23.</li></ul>

Today, we need to address two critical topics, both connected to the U.S. regulatory landscape and, unsurprisingly, to crypto.Firstly, let us discuss the pending decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding an Ethereum spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).The SEC is poised to approve or reject the VanEck Ethereum ETF application by May 23.

Crypto Moves #28 – U.S. Election Puts Crypto on the Map

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.</li><li>April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.</li><li>However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.</li><li>Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.</li><li>Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

<ul><li>Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.</li><li>Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.</li><li>US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.</li></ul>

Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April