Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.</li><li>Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.</li><li>Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.</li></ul>

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.

Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

<ul><li>Happy Monday from Copenhagen.</li><li>What a comeback by JJ Spaun at Oakmont yesterday (sorry to the non-golfers), and what a comeback risk is about to make this week.</li><li>Iran’s mullah-tocracy is on the brink, and it could be a catalyst for a big bounce in risk appetite.</li></ul>

Happy Monday from Copenhagen.What a comeback by JJ Spaun at Oakmont yesterday (sorry to the non-golfers), and what a comeback risk is about to make this week.Iran’s mullah-tocracy is on the brink, and it could be a catalyst for a big bounce in risk appetite.

Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7<sup>th</sup> and the beginning of the Gaza war.</li><li>This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.</li><li>So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.</li></ul>

We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7th and the beginning of the Gaza war.This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.

<ul><li>Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.</li><li>Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.</li></ul>

Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

<ul><li>Morning from Europe.</li><li>Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.</li><li>On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe.Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.

Steno Signals #198 – A 20–25% Weaker USD May Solve All Trump’s Problems