Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>As I write this, markets are in a buoyant mood, with stocks moving ahead following news of another 90-day (what’s it with 90 days?) pause in the US-China tariff war.</li><li>This starkly contrasts with last week’s news, as the Fed and the BoE warned that the outlook for their respective economies is worsening.</li><li>However, the former seems in no hurry to cut rates, while the latter’s divided policy committee indicates that rate cuts may continue more slowly than expected.</li></ul>

As I write this, markets are in a buoyant mood, with stocks moving ahead following news of another 90-day (what’s it with 90 days?) pause in the US-China tariff war.This starkly contrasts with last week’s news, as the Fed and the BoE warned that the outlook for their respective economies is worsening.However, the former seems in no hurry to cut rates, while the latter’s divided policy committee indicates that rate cuts may continue more slowly than expected.

Monday Macro – beyond 100 days: making sense of volatile markets as we head towards the summer

<ul><li>This week's big story is obviously President Trump's inauguration and the likely blizzard of policy announcements.</li><li>What he and his team have in mind is beyond my purview – we’ll have to wait for his campaign of shock and awe.</li><li>Over the next few weeks, I’ll attempt to parse what impact these developments might have on investment decision-making, helped along, I am sure, by copious research and strategy notes from the big institutions.</li></ul>

This week's big story is obviously President Trump's inauguration and the likely blizzard of policy announcements.What he and his team have in mind is beyond my purview – we’ll have to wait for his campaign of shock and awe.Over the next few weeks, I’ll attempt to parse what impact these developments might have on investment decision-making, helped along, I am sure, by copious research and strategy notes from the big institutions.

Monday Macro – Pulling together some big-picture thoughts

<ul><li>I thought we’d start by looking at what moved the markets in 2024.</li><li>The table below, in the form of a heat map, looks at returns (sorted by 2024 YTD returns) for a bunch of major indices and asset classes.</li><li>The stand-out number for me is that of Bitcoin, up an astonishing 111%, with the NASDAQ Composite a long way behind on a price return (not including dividends) of ‘just’ 32%. </li></ul>

I thought we’d start by looking at what moved the markets in 2024.The table below, in the form of a heat map, looks at returns (sorted by 2024 YTD returns) for a bunch of major indices and asset classes.The stand-out number for me is that of Bitcoin, up an astonishing 111%, with the NASDAQ Composite a long way behind on a price return (not including dividends) of ‘just’ 32%. 

<ul>
<li>Over the last week, the FTSE ALL World equities index stalled slightly, losing 0.8% in value, with the FTSE ALL Share index losing a tad more, down a smidgeon under 1%.</li>
<li>Tech stocks again outperformed, sending the Nasdaq 1.5% higher and taking the index to over 20,000 for the first time ever.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 edged 0.5% lower, and the Russell 2000 ended the week 2% down. The Magnificent 7 hit new highs as the market-broadening trend evaporated.</li>
</ul>


Over the last week, the FTSE ALL World equities index stalled slightly, losing 0.8% in value, with the FTSE ALL Share index losing a tad more, down a smidgeon under 1%.
Tech stocks again outperformed, sending the Nasdaq 1.5% higher and taking the index to over 20,000 for the first time ever.
The S&amp;P 500 edged 0.5% lower, and the Russell 2000 ended the week 2% down. The Magnificent 7 hit new highs as the market-broadening trend evaporated.


Monday Macro: Bumper Crystal Ball Time, Plus the US Equity Bulls Are Still Rampaging

<ul><li>I want to start this Monday's Macro with a very top-down discussion before digging into helpful market data.</li><li>Here’s the thought – we’re entering a potentially dangerous, extended 12-to-15-month period for big macro debates.</li><li>What matters for markets globally is what happens in the US, and what matters in the US is what the US Federal Reserve is thinking.</li></ul>

I want to start this Monday's Macro with a very top-down discussion before digging into helpful market data.Here’s the thought – we’re entering a potentially dangerous, extended 12-to-15-month period for big macro debates.What matters for markets globally is what happens in the US, and what matters in the US is what the US Federal Reserve is thinking.

Monday Macro: Thoughts on the Next 15 Months