Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.</li><li>Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&amp;S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.</li><li>Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.</li></ul>

Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&amp;S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

(Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.</li><li>This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.</li><li>BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.</li></ul>

Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.

Will the Coffee Trade become the new Cocoa?

<ul><li>Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.</li><li>There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lag</li><li>While not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.</li></ul>

Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lagWhile not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.

Be Careful With Metals & Why we currently don’t touch Oil Markets

<ul><li>Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.</li><li>The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.</li><li>In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.</li></ul>

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.

<ul><li>Cocoa Update: Analysts say the retreat reflects a drop-off in consumer demand as a result of the higher prices, as well as expectations of a better crop given improved weather and higher state-guaranteed prices in West Africa.</li><li>In addition, speculators who had previously been riding the rally have more recently dumped their positions, with many now betting on falling prices.</li><li>Those supply fears have now started to ease. </li></ul>

Cocoa Update: Analysts say the retreat reflects a drop-off in consumer demand as a result of the higher prices, as well as expectations of a better crop given improved weather and higher state-guaranteed prices in West Africa.In addition, speculators who had previously been riding the rally have more recently dumped their positions, with many now betting on falling prices.Those supply fears have now started to ease. 

Cocoa Market is Shifting // Brazilian Soybean Domination