Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Only one of our non-consensus macro calls are not working and eight of eleven markets are moving our directions. </li>
<li>Our latest business cycle indicator assessment points to a better second half. </li>
<li>2025 Investment Strategy maintained. We are overweight equities and underweight government bonds.</li>
</ul>


Only one of our non-consensus macro calls are not working and eight of eleven markets are moving our directions. 
Our latest business cycle indicator assessment points to a better second half. 
2025 Investment Strategy maintained. We are overweight equities and underweight government bonds.


<ul>
<li>Our out-of-consensus forecast for the U.S. dollar trade-weighted index to strengthen in the second half is playing out</li>
<li>Maintain an overweight position in unhedged U.S. equities and expect the Fed to cut interest rates by only 25 bps in 2025, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar.</li>
<li>The biggest long term challenge to the US dollar is not gold but stablecoin and the changing global economic and geopolitical order.</li>
</ul>


Our out-of-consensus forecast for the U.S. dollar trade-weighted index to strengthen in the second half is playing out
Maintain an overweight position in unhedged U.S. equities and expect the Fed to cut interest rates by only 25 bps in 2025, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar.
The biggest long term challenge to the US dollar is not gold but stablecoin and the changing global economic and geopolitical order.


<ul>
<li>Overweight US equities.  Government debt issuance is rising, investors switching from bonds to equities and foreign US bond investor appetite waning.</li>
<li>Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is classic demand side fiscal stimulus, benefiting consumers.</li>
<li>The 12–18-month outlook for domestic demand and corporate earnings growth has improved – reinforcing what business cycle indicators were already signalling.</li>
</ul>


Overweight US equities.  Government debt issuance is rising, investors switching from bonds to equities and foreign US bond investor appetite waning.
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is classic demand side fiscal stimulus, benefiting consumers.
The 12–18-month outlook for domestic demand and corporate earnings growth has improved – reinforcing what business cycle indicators were already signalling.


<ul>
<li>Despite the Upper House election result we are overweight Japanese equities and a buyer of the yen. </li>
<li>Business cycle indicators are positive; the profit and investment cycles in upswing. Companies are highly diversified – foreign sales account for 40% of  sales and 37% of production is abroad. </li>
<li>They are hedging their bets by expanding in the US and India while scaling back in China. These factors contribute to the resilience of corporate earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


Despite the Upper House election result we are overweight Japanese equities and a buyer of the yen. 
Business cycle indicators are positive; the profit and investment cycles in upswing. Companies are highly diversified – foreign sales account for 40% of  sales and 37% of production is abroad. 
They are hedging their bets by expanding in the US and India while scaling back in China. These factors contribute to the resilience of corporate earnings growth.


<ul>
<li>The investment implications of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill are underweight US government debt and overweight US equities. </li>
<li>The bill is just plain old fashion demand side fiscal stimulus. </li>
<li>Favour momentum stocks with a sectoral bias towards  consumer discretionary, tech, industrials, traditional energy, defence. Underweight renewables and Treasuries and increase exposure to Bitcoin.</li>
</ul>


The investment implications of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill are underweight US government debt and overweight US equities. 
The bill is just plain old fashion demand side fiscal stimulus. 
Favour momentum stocks with a sectoral bias towards  consumer discretionary, tech, industrials, traditional energy, defence. Underweight renewables and Treasuries and increase exposure to Bitcoin.


Big, Beautiful Folly - Underweight Treasuries