Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.</li>
<li>We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.</li>
<li>Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.</li>
</ul>


3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.
We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.
Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.


TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here

<ul>
<li>Financing plans for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI chip orders totaled more than US$150bn, as the FT put OpenAI's revenue run rate at about US$50bn.</li>
<li>Laminate and power chip prices rose, and Nanya told customers DRAM prices will rise up to 20% as Micron's Taiwan union won a strike vote.</li>
<li>Foxconn booked Taiwan's first NT$1tn revenue month and TSMC beat its 3Q guidance, while Samsung reportedly plans to cut 4Q phone output by up to 30%.</li>
</ul>


Financing plans for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI chip orders totaled more than US$150bn, as the FT put OpenAI's revenue run rate at about US$50bn.
Laminate and power chip prices rose, and Nanya told customers DRAM prices will rise up to 20% as Micron's Taiwan union won a strike vote.
Foxconn booked Taiwan's first NT$1tn revenue month and TSMC beat its 3Q guidance, while Samsung reportedly plans to cut 4Q phone output by up to 30%.


The Blade Weekly: AI Chip Financings Pass US$150bn as OpenAI's Revenue Lands US$20bn Below Reports

<ul>
<li>Micron reported US$32bn of customer commitments, mostly cash deposits, with 75% of fiscal 2027 output committed and most 2027 HBM contracted above 2026 prices.</li>
<li>Broadcom will lend Anthropic up to US$42bn as Anthropic's IPO filing lists US$518bn of compute obligations against about US$4.6bn of 2025 revenue.</li>
<li>Amazon bought a NT$1.59bn Gold Circuit stake, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expanding substrates on reported NVIDIA prepayments, and phone makers cut memory demand 30% to 40%.</li>
</ul>


Micron reported US$32bn of customer commitments, mostly cash deposits, with 75% of fiscal 2027 output committed and most 2027 HBM contracted above 2026 prices.
Broadcom will lend Anthropic up to US$42bn as Anthropic's IPO filing lists US$518bn of compute obligations against about US$4.6bn of 2025 revenue.
Amazon bought a NT$1.59bn Gold Circuit stake, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expanding substrates on reported NVIDIA prepayments, and phone makers cut memory demand 30% to 40%.


The Blade Weekly: Micron Customers Post US$32bn of Deposits, Broadcom Lends Anthropic up to US$42bn

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.3% Premium; Rebounded from Our Long the ADR Level</li>
<li>UMC: +3.4% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +5.8% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.3% Premium; Rebounded from Our Long the ADR Level
UMC: +3.4% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread
ASE: +5.8% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: UMC, ASE and ChipMOS Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread

Wiwynn Corporation manufactures computer storage devices. The Company develops and sells servers, storage devices, network systems, and equipment room infrastructure products. Wiwynn markets its products throughout Taiwan.

<ul>
<li>What makes an AI rack hard to build: a rail qualified into the tray, rack integration to an operator's own design, and a switch engineered around a bought-in chip.</li>
<li>King Slide's monthly revenue is 3.6x January's and runs 10.5% above what 2026 consensus needs; Accton helds its rate; Wiwynn is on pace with July low and August high.</li>
<li>Inside the tray, Lotes and Elite Material told us customers keep raising high-speed data requirements and laminates must lose less signal: the spec every part is designed against.</li>
</ul>


What makes an AI rack hard to build: a rail qualified into the tray, rack integration to an operator's own design, and a switch engineered around a bought-in chip.
King Slide's monthly revenue is 3.6x January's and runs 10.5% above what 2026 consensus needs; Accton helds its rate; Wiwynn is on pace with July low and August high.
Inside the tray, Lotes and Elite Material told us customers keep raising high-speed data requirements and laminates must lose less signal: the spec every part is designed against.


TechChain Insights Q&A: What Makes an AI Rack Hard to Build: Rails, Integration and Switches