Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>If there is no relief on yield curve control (YCC) anytime soon, seek banks with low JGBs</li>
<li>Chiba Bank is one of few banks in Japan where JGBs are nearly a rounding error vs assets</li>
<li>A pure play on an improving Japan, focused next door to Tokyo, with falling NPLs</li>
</ul>


If there is no relief on yield curve control (YCC) anytime soon, seek banks with low JGBs
Chiba Bank is one of few banks in Japan where JGBs are nearly a rounding error vs assets
A pure play on an improving Japan, focused next door to Tokyo, with falling NPLs


Chiba Bank - Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211376" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211514" rel="noopener"> </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-price-range-is-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:212880" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive</a>.</li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.
I previously discussed the IPO in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive.
The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY </li>
<li>There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.</li>
<li>Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY 
There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.
Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.


Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks</li>
<li>Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income</li>
<li>Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore</li>
</ul>


Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore


Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

Japan

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

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Chiba Bank (8331 JP)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Chiba Bank - Less Yield Curve Control Issue With Near Zero JGBs

With BOJ move for some nimble YCCC relief it becomes important to differentiate between Japan's banks with duration and bonds.

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Chiba Bank already showing good net interest income gains, and more is likely with rate hike from BOJ, credit metrics appear strong, so better core...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

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