Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.</li>
<li>We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM's stock has bottomed.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) will report 3Q23 results on 10/11/23. This will be the first loss-making quarter since 4Q14.
We expect a loss as AEM will have to recognize the 26.7M SGD arbitration expense to settle with Advantest Corp (6857 JP). 
Investors will be looking for an early read on the FY24 outlook to determine if AEM's stock has bottomed.


Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

<ul>
<li>AEM reported strong 1Q22 results (+226% YoY) and raised its FY22 revenue guidance to 700-750M SGD. AEM management continues to believe they are in a multi-year ramp-up. </li>
<li>While the US tech sector is imploding left and right AEM is a very specific story linked to Intel's CAPEX binge. Expect momentum to remain in FY22 and into FY23.</li>
<li>Fair Value of 8 SGD remains unchanged (based on 20x 0.40 FY22 EPS), or 62% upside from the current 4.92 SGD share price.</li>
</ul>


AEM reported strong 1Q22 results (+226% YoY) and raised its FY22 revenue guidance to 700-750M SGD. AEM management continues to believe they are in a multi-year ramp-up. 
While the US tech sector is imploding left and right AEM is a very specific story linked to Intel's CAPEX binge. Expect momentum to remain in FY22 and into FY23.
Fair Value of 8 SGD remains unchanged (based on 20x 0.40 FY22 EPS), or 62% upside from the current 4.92 SGD share price.


AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel's Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

<ul>
<li>AEM raises guidance significantly for FY21 and the outlook is bullish on FY22</li>
<li>New customer wins to start showing up in financials by 2H22</li>
<li>8 SGD Fair Value (20x 0.40 FY22 EPS or 84% upside)</li>
</ul>


AEM raises guidance significantly for FY21 and the outlook is bullish on FY22
New customer wins to start showing up in financials by 2H22
8 SGD Fair Value (20x 0.40 FY22 EPS or 84% upside)


Aem Holdings: Raises Guidance for FY21, New Customer Wins in FY22 to Drive Re-Rating to 8 SGD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), UOB Kay Hian

UOB Kay Hian

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Backed by the UOB Group, UOB Kay Hian is one of Asia’s largest brokerage firms. Headquartered in Singapore, we are supported by more than 80 branches worldwide including a growing network of offices across Southeast Asia, Greater China, the United Kingdom and North America. Our global footprint and strong international presence have enabled us to feel the pulse of key financial markets and deliver incisive intelligence across industry sectors and asset classes. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Downgrade AEM (SGX:AWX) to SELL with an unchanged target price of S$2.87.</li><li>AEM’s one-month share price rally of about 30% was largely driven by the increased interest in AI-related stocks from positive developments in the space since May 23.</li><li>AEM's share price has rallied along with many semiconductor-related stocks since the strong sales forecast by US-listed Nvidia in late-May 23, which has driven positive development in the AI-related space.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Downgrade AEM (SGX:AWX) to SELL with an unchanged target price of S$2.87.AEM’s one-month share price rally of about 30% was largely driven by the increased interest in AI-related stocks from positive developments in the space since May 23.AEM's share price has rallied along with many semiconductor-related stocks since the strong sales forecast by US-listed Nvidia in late-May 23, which has driven positive development in the AI-related space.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AEM - Cautious On Rally From AI Hype; Earnings Could Miss On Overoptimistic Estimates

Singapore

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

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AEM (AEM SP)

Preview AEM Holdings: Loss-Making Quarter Ahead For First Time in 10 Years

AEM will report its first loss-making quarter in 10 years. FY24 could bring back EPS to 0.40 SGD meaning the stock could appreciate 75% to reach 6...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel's Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

AEM reported record 1Q22 results and in the conference call reiterated it is looking for a multi-year ramp. This ramp is driven by its key client...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Aem Holdings: Raises Guidance for FY21, New Customer Wins in FY22 to Drive Re-Rating to 8 SGD

AEM will soon cross the 1B USD market cap treshold attracting a new sort of investor base. Combine this with a bullish outlook for FY22 and all...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM - Cautious On Rally From AI Hype; Earnings Could Miss On Overoptimistic Estimates

AEM’s one-month share price rally of about 30% was largely driven by the increased interest in AI-related stocks from positive developments in the...

UOB Kay Hian

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