Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC has been operating as a monopoly, raising prices without consequence and controlling pricing in the industry.</li><li>Intel's CEO's recent comments about not investing in the next process without an external customer have raised concerns about the future of Intel's Foundry business.</li><li>The lack of commitment to future processes has led to suggestions that Intel should shut down fabs and secure capacity at TSMC, potentially impacting CPU competitiveness.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

TSMC has been operating as a monopoly, raising prices without consequence and controlling pricing in the industry.Intel's CEO's recent comments about not investing in the next process without an external customer have raised concerns about the future of Intel's Foundry business.The lack of commitment to future processes has led to suggestions that Intel should shut down fabs and secure capacity at TSMC, potentially impacting CPU competitiveness.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian currencies bottomed out in early April. FII flows turned positive in May. Flows into Taiwan are recovering the fastest, followed by those into Korea. India's recovery is relatively tepid. </li>
<li>Flows into ASEAN remain negative - the lack of recovery, we think, is due to lack of macroeconomic catalysts, declining EPS estimates and trade related worries. We remain underweight ASEAN.</li>
<li>We are overweight Korea (recovering EPS, cheapest, flows accelerating). We like Taiwanese tech, key beneficiary of investors’ renewed AI enthusiasm. Overweight on India, despite its overvaluation, stems from bottom-up ideas.</li>
</ul>


Asian currencies bottomed out in early April. FII flows turned positive in May. Flows into Taiwan are recovering the fastest, followed by those into Korea. India's recovery is relatively tepid. 
Flows into ASEAN remain negative - the lack of recovery, we think, is due to lack of macroeconomic catalysts, declining EPS estimates and trade related worries. We remain underweight ASEAN.
We are overweight Korea (recovering EPS, cheapest, flows accelerating). We like Taiwanese tech, key beneficiary of investors’ renewed AI enthusiasm. Overweight on India, despite its overvaluation, stems from bottom-up ideas.


Asian Equities: Foreign Flows – Some Strength, Some Sustained Disappointments

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Ownership in Alibaba has rebounded to 76.4% of EM funds, nearing its 2020 peak and making it the second most widely held stock among GEM funds, behind only TSMC.</li>
<li>The past six months have seen strong momentum, with 29 new fund positions marking a 7.7% rise in participation— the third highest among all EM stocks.</li>
<li>Alibaba attracts broad cross-style interest, with Value funds leading on allocation size, but Growth and GARP strategies among the top holders, reflecting high and diverse conviction.</li>
</ul>


Ownership in Alibaba has rebounded to 76.4% of EM funds, nearing its 2020 peak and making it the second most widely held stock among GEM funds, behind only TSMC.
The past six months have seen strong momentum, with 29 new fund positions marking a 7.7% rise in participation— the third highest among all EM stocks.
Alibaba attracts broad cross-style interest, with Value funds leading on allocation size, but Growth and GARP strategies among the top holders, reflecting high and diverse conviction.


Alibaba: Sentiment Rebounds Among GEM Funds

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.</li>
<li>Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.</li>
<li>Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).</li>
</ul>


Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.
Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.
Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).


Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ambiq Micro priced 4.0 million shares at $24.00.  The  share count was upsized 17.6% and the pricing was at the upper-half of the range. </li>
<li>The performance of Ambiq Micro is one that squarely places them among the best for the year in terms of opening performance. </li>
<li>A conservative valuation and a small deal size assisted in this IPO being wildly successful.</li>
</ul>


Ambiq Micro priced 4.0 million shares at $24.00.  The  share count was upsized 17.6% and the pricing was at the upper-half of the range. 
The performance of Ambiq Micro is one that squarely places them among the best for the year in terms of opening performance. 
A conservative valuation and a small deal size assisted in this IPO being wildly successful.


Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Overall, TSMC's dominance in the industry and Intel's hesitancy towards investing in new processes have raised concerns about a potential monopoly...

The Circuit

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows – Some Strength, Some Sustained Disappointments

Interesting reallocation by foreign investors in July – Korea bought $3.06bn, Taiwan bought $7.05 bn, India sold $2.03bn. AI capex enthusiasm is...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Alibaba: Sentiment Rebounds Among GEM Funds

Alibaba is back in favour with GEM funds, now the 2nd most widely held stock. Broad style participation and rising conviction point to a renewed...

Steven Holden

Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Overall, TSMC's dominance in the industry and Intel's hesitancy towards investing in new processes have raised concerns about a potential monopoly...

The Circuit

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows – Some Strength, Some Sustained Disappointments

Interesting reallocation by foreign investors in July – Korea bought $3.06bn, Taiwan bought $7.05 bn, India sold $2.03bn. AI capex enthusiasm is...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Alibaba: Sentiment Rebounds Among GEM Funds

Alibaba is back in favour with GEM funds, now the 2nd most widely held stock. Broad style participation and rising conviction point to a renewed...

Steven Holden

Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

​Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

​Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...

IPO Boutique

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...