Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off "fungible" compute strategy</li>
<li>Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, "jagged" intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth</li>
<li>Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off "fungible" compute strategy
Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, "jagged" intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.


Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microsoft reported a robust financial performance for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter, underscoring its leadership in the burgeoning cloud and AI sectors.</li><li>The company's revenue reached $77.7 billion, an 18% increase from the previous year, driven significantly by Microsoft Cloud, which generated $49.1 billion, up 26% year-over-year.</li><li>This growth was attributed to strong demand for Azure and AI-driven solutions, particularly through strategic partnerships like that with OpenAI.</li></ul>

Microsoft reported a robust financial performance for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter, underscoring its leadership in the burgeoning cloud and AI sectors.The company's revenue reached $77.7 billion, an 18% increase from the previous year, driven significantly by Microsoft Cloud, which generated $49.1 billion, up 26% year-over-year.This growth was attributed to strong demand for Azure and AI-driven solutions, particularly through strategic partnerships like that with OpenAI.

Microsoft’s Q3 Earnings: How A Strategic AI Upgrade Could Trigger a Cloud Supercycle!

<ul>
<li>In Q126, Microsoft recorded $4.1 billion in net losses from investments in OpenAI, up from $688 million in the year ago quarter.</li>
<li>The newly updated partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI has many clauses contingent on when (not if) AGI gets declared. Since AGI has no actual definition, an expert panel will decide. </li>
<li>Sam Altman dreams of an OpenAI IPO so that detractors can be lured into shorting the stock and getting burned in the process. Revenue growth is a touchy subject, apparently</li>
</ul>


In Q126, Microsoft recorded $4.1 billion in net losses from investments in OpenAI, up from $688 million in the year ago quarter.
The newly updated partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI has many clauses contingent on when (not if) AGI gets declared. Since AGI has no actual definition, an expert panel will decide. 
Sam Altman dreams of an OpenAI IPO so that detractors can be lured into shorting the stock and getting burned in the process. Revenue growth is a touchy subject, apparently


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Revenue up 18% YoY. Cloud revenue up 26%. Commercial remaining obligation up 51%. Commercial bookings up 112%. AI capacity up 80% this year, will roughly double over next two years. </li>
<li>For a company with $300+bn revenue, that’s impressive. Slight irritant: $4bn loss on OpenAI in a quarter, 13% of net income gone. Is that the price of top line growth?</li>
<li>The stock is trading at 29x forward EPS, Cloud &amp; AI revenues are accelerating, but profits incl OpenAI loss are probably very thin. The cash cow will come years later. </li>
</ul>


Revenue up 18% YoY. Cloud revenue up 26%. Commercial remaining obligation up 51%. Commercial bookings up 112%. AI capacity up 80% this year, will roughly double over next two years. 
For a company with $300+bn revenue, that’s impressive. Slight irritant: $4bn loss on OpenAI in a quarter, 13% of net income gone. Is that the price of top line growth?
The stock is trading at 29x forward EPS, Cloud &amp; AI revenues are accelerating, but profits incl OpenAI loss are probably very thin. The cash cow will come years later. 


MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Microsoft reported (30 Oct HKT) 1QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$77.7bn, up 18.4% YoY (4QFY25: +18.1% YoY), 3% better than both our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, driven by an all-round beat in all three business segments.</li><li>Net profit was up 12.5% YoY to US$27.7bn, 2%/1% better than our forecast and consensus.</li><li>Excluding the earnings impact from investment in OpenAI, EPS would grow 23% YoY. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Microsoft reported (30 Oct HKT) 1QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$77.7bn, up 18.4% YoY (4QFY25: +18.1% YoY), 3% better than both our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, driven by an all-round beat in all three business segments.Net profit was up 12.5% YoY to US$27.7bn, 2%/1% better than our forecast and consensus.Excluding the earnings impact from investment in OpenAI, EPS would grow 23% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Robust Cloud Revenue Growth with Enhanced Monetization...

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Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

It could just be me, but I think Mr. Nadella is trying to tell us something about the state of AI. We should probably listen. Let’s see.

William Keating

Microsoft’s Q3 Earnings: How A Strategic AI Upgrade Could Trigger a Cloud Supercycle!

Microsoft reported a robust financial performance for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter, underscoring its leadership in the burgeoning cloud and...

Baptista Research

Microsoft's OpenAI Conundrum

Sam Altman dreams of an OpenAI IPO so that detractors can be lured into shorting the stock and getting burned in the process. Revenue growth is a...

William Keating

MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...

Nicolas Baratte

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Robust Cloud Revenue Growth with Enhanced Monetization...

Microsoft reported (30 Oct HKT) 1QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$77.7bn, up 18.4% YoY (4QFY25: +18.1% YoY), 3% better than both our...

CMB International

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Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

It could just be me, but I think Mr. Nadella is trying to tell us something about the state of AI. We should probably listen. Let’s see.

William Keating

Microsoft’s Q3 Earnings: How A Strategic AI Upgrade Could Trigger a Cloud Supercycle!

Microsoft reported a robust financial performance for its fiscal year 2026 first quarter, underscoring its leadership in the burgeoning cloud and...

Baptista Research

Microsoft's OpenAI Conundrum

Sam Altman dreams of an OpenAI IPO so that detractors can be lured into shorting the stock and getting burned in the process. Revenue growth is a...

William Keating

MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

​Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...

Nicolas Baratte

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Robust Cloud Revenue Growth with Enhanced Monetization...

Microsoft reported (30 Oct HKT) 1QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$77.7bn, up 18.4% YoY (4QFY25: +18.1% YoY), 3% better than both our...

CMB International

Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...