AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.</li>
<li>CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.</li>
<li>Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.</li>
</ul>


Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.
Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.


Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.</li>
<li>3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 


UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2</li>
<li>Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.</li>
<li>UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2
Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.
UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).</li>
<li>Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.</li>
<li>ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).
Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.
ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.


MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.</li>
<li>Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.</li>
<li>2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.
Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication &amp; Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.
2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.


Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

​Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

​2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

​UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

​3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

​Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...

Patrick Liao

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Positive outlook in 3Q25 with increased wafer shipment, higher ASP, and steady gross margin. Revenue mix shows strong industrial and automotive...