Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>WTI rose 0.81% for the W/E 09/Oct as Hormuz risks and Hurricane Isaias offset supply relief; rising skew and fund long liquidation point to a short-lived supply-risk premium.</li>
<li>Energy equities outpaced flat crude, with XLE and XOP rallying and AUM flowing into traditional energy ETFs, while clean-energy ICLN lagged.</li>
<li>Frontline's Q3 bookings suggest estimates are beatable after a record Q2, but Middle East de-escalation and new vessel supply threaten tanker rates.</li>
</ul>


WTI rose 0.81% for the W/E 09/Oct as Hormuz risks and Hurricane Isaias offset supply relief; rising skew and fund long liquidation point to a short-lived supply-risk premium.
Energy equities outpaced flat crude, with XLE and XOP rallying and AUM flowing into traditional energy ETFs, while clean-energy ICLN lagged.
Frontline's Q3 bookings suggest estimates are beatable after a record Q2, but Middle East de-escalation and new vessel supply threaten tanker rates.


Energy Weekly (W/E 09/Oct): WTI Holds Gains on Hormuz Risk, Frontline Tests Peak Rates

Equity Bottom-Up

Schlumberger Limited is an oil services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of services, including technology, project management and information solutions to the international petroleum industry as well as advanced acquisition and data processing surveys.

<ul>
<li>Halliburton keeps beating estimates, but its EPS beats are shrinking while SLB converts better. Q3 looks priced in, so Q4 guidance will drive both stocks.</li>
<li>Halliburton must lift its C&amp;P margins by 125–175 bps after a Q2 miss. SLB's USD 10 billion revenue target hinges on Middle East revenue recovering.</li>
<li>SLB puts hedge just below spot with scattered upside calls; Halliburton is balanced, with little appetite for a rally.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton keeps beating estimates, but its EPS beats are shrinking while SLB converts better. Q3 looks priced in, so Q4 guidance will drive both stocks.
Halliburton must lift its C&amp;P margins by 125–175 bps after a Q2 miss. SLB's USD 10 billion revenue target hinges on Middle East revenue recovering.
SLB puts hedge just below spot with scattered upside calls; Halliburton is balanced, with little appetite for a rally.


SLB and Halliburton Q3 2026 Preview: Q4 Guidance Takes Centre Stage

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Weak mill profitability remains the key drag on iron ore, while elevated inventories and fading freight support continue to weigh on the near-term demand-supply balance.</li>
<li>The divergence in grade spreads shows 61% Fe underperforming both premium and lower-grade ore, pointing to weaker relative demand for the benchmark.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains tilted towards upside exposure, but unwinding at key strikes and a rising put-call ratio signal fading bullish conviction.</li>
</ul>


Weak mill profitability remains the key drag on iron ore, while elevated inventories and fading freight support continue to weigh on the near-term demand-supply balance.
The divergence in grade spreads shows 61% Fe underperforming both premium and lower-grade ore, pointing to weaker relative demand for the benchmark.
Options positioning remains tilted towards upside exposure, but unwinding at key strikes and a rising put-call ratio signal fading bullish conviction.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.</li>
<li>Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.</li>
<li>The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.</li>
</ul>


BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.
Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.
The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.


Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

<ul>
<li>Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.</li>
<li>Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.</li>
<li>Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.</li>
</ul>


Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.
Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.
Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.


Nucor’s Operating Momentum Meets a New Wave of U.S. Steel Capacity

Mint Finance
Deep Fundamental Analysis

Energy Weekly (W/E 09/Oct): WTI Holds Gains on Hormuz Risk, Frontline Tests Peak Rates

WTI held gains on Hormuz and hurricane risks as funds de-risked and energy equities outperformed. Frontline's Q3 looks solid, but tanker rates...

Mint Finance

SLB and Halliburton Q3 2026 Preview: Q4 Guidance Takes Centre Stage

Halliburton and SLB report back-to-back, with Q4 guidance likely to drive the market reaction. We examine margin recovery, Middle East exposure,...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (September 2026)

Iron Ore's OI activity has shifted away from higher strikes, with the earlier 120-strike buildup largely unwound, signaling weaker conviction...

Mint Finance

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

Nucor’s Operating Momentum Meets a New Wave of U.S. Steel Capacity

Pricing, volumes and domestic demand remain supportive, but new U.S. capacity could become the next major test for Nucor.

Mint Finance