Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Commodities

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>Gold prices touched a record high in April despite headwinds due to robust demand from Chinese speculators.</li>
<li>Asian Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of funds in April, while American and European Gold ETFs witnessed net outflows.</li>
<li>Demand for gold continues to be driven by central banks of emerging markets like China, India, and Türkiye.</li>
</ul>


Gold prices touched a record high in April despite headwinds due to robust demand from Chinese speculators.
Asian Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of funds in April, while American and European Gold ETFs witnessed net outflows.
Demand for gold continues to be driven by central banks of emerging markets like China, India, and Türkiye.


Chinese Speculative Activity Driving Gold to Record Highs

Pranay Yadav

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul>
<li>Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.</li>
<li>Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.</li>
<li>Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. </li>
</ul>


Corn prices are presently being pressured by ample supplies owing to the record US harvest.
Corn prices face an upside risk owing to elevated demand for ethanol and supply uncertainty from the South American harvest.
Premium for long-dated corn futures over near-term futures is on the rise. A calendar spread can be used to express this view. 


Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.</li>
<li>Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.</li>
<li>Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.</li>
</ul>


March CPI print came in above expectations at 3.5% YoY. CPI has come in above expectations for the past four months.
Gasoline, shelter, and transportation services were the major inflation drivers.
Dollar was the winner following the release as other currencies weakened. Euro declined the most while JPY weakened the least.


[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.</li>
<li>Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.</li>
</ul>


EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.
The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.
Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.


EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

Mint Finance
Deep Fundamental Analysis

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Chinese Speculative Activity Driving Gold to Record Highs

Despite fading hopes of rate cuts, elevated treasury yields, strikes in India, easing geopolitical tensions, Gold prices continue to set new highs.

Mint Finance

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

EIA's April STEO reveals upward revisions in global oil consumption, production, and price forecasts. It also raises forecast on gasoline prices...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Chinese Speculative Activity Driving Gold to Record Highs

Despite fading hopes of rate cuts, elevated treasury yields, strikes in India, easing geopolitical tensions, Gold prices continue to set new highs.

Mint Finance

Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy Costs

​Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

Mint Finance

[US CPI Review] Energy, Housing, And Services Keep Inflation Hotter Than Expected

​March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...

Mint Finance

EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

EIA's April STEO reveals upward revisions in global oil consumption, production, and price forecasts. It also raises forecast on gasoline prices...

Mint Finance

Record US harvest leads to ample corn supplies, but upside price risk due to ethanol demand and South American harvest uncertainty.

March CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5% YoY, driven by gasoline, shelter, and transportation services. Dollar strengthened against other...