Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A 90-day mutual tariff rollback between the U.S. and China has boosted global sentiment, with iron ore futures jumping nearly 3% on hopes of eased trade friction.</li>
<li>Consumer and producer prices in China continued to fall in April, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures and unresolved structural challenges despite ongoing policy support. </li>
<li>Portside iron ore inventories fell in early May, suggesting robust mill demand and potential price support, though risks remain if end-user consumption fails to keep pace. </li>
</ul>


A 90-day mutual tariff rollback between the U.S. and China has boosted global sentiment, with iron ore futures jumping nearly 3% on hopes of eased trade friction.
Consumer and producer prices in China continued to fall in April, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures and unresolved structural challenges despite ongoing policy support. 
Portside iron ore inventories fell in early May, suggesting robust mill demand and potential price support, though risks remain if end-user consumption fails to keep pace. 


[IO Fundamentals 2025/19] U.S.-China Trade Truce Lifts Sentiment and IO Inventories Decline

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.</li>
<li>The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.</li>
<li>For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.</li>
<li>Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $2.45/ton WoW to $98.30/ton, supported by stimulus hopes and US-China trade talks, before facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band.</li>
<li>Prices remain below major moving averages despite a bullish MACD crossover, with a recent death cross and RSI at 46.83 indicating mixed momentum and limited upside.</li>
<li>Managed Money increased net short positions, while Physicals turned net long; total futures and options open interest dropped 11.14% WoW, signaling reduced overall market participation.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $2.45/ton WoW to $98.30/ton, supported by stimulus hopes and US-China trade talks, before facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band.
Prices remain below major moving averages despite a bullish MACD crossover, with a recent death cross and RSI at 46.83 indicating mixed momentum and limited upside.
Managed Money increased net short positions, while Physicals turned net long; total futures and options open interest dropped 11.14% WoW, signaling reduced overall market participation.


[IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.


[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

Mint Finance
Deep Fundamental Analysis

[IO Fundamentals 2025/19] U.S.-China Trade Truce Lifts Sentiment and IO Inventories Decline

A rare tariff truce lifts global sentiment, iron ore rallies on supply optimism, but China’s deepening deflation and steel curbs temper market...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output

WTI futures rose 4.7% last week due to easing trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling inventories. U.S. rig count fell by 6 to 578, with...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand

US natural gas prices rose due to lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand. Inventory build slightly higher than expected. Henry Hub...

Mint Finance

[IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally

Iron ore prices rose on stimulus and trade optimism but faced renewed pressure from steel output cuts and technical resistance, highlighting...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/19] U.S.-China Trade Truce Lifts Sentiment and IO Inventories Decline

A rare tariff truce lifts global sentiment, iron ore rallies on supply optimism, but China’s deepening deflation and steel curbs temper market...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/19] WTI Rebounds on U.S.-China Trade Talks and Declining Output

​WTI futures rose 4.7% last week due to easing trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling inventories. U.S. rig count fell by 6 to 578, with...

Mint Finance

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/19] Henry Hub Extends Gains on Output Cuts and Strong LNG Demand

​US natural gas prices rose due to lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand. Inventory build slightly higher than expected. Henry Hub...

Mint Finance

[IO Technical 2025/19]: Bearish Signals Persist Despite Brief Rally

Iron ore prices rose on stimulus and trade optimism but faced renewed pressure from steel output cuts and technical resistance, highlighting...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

WTI futures rose 4.7% last week due to easing trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling inventories. U.S. rig count fell by 6 to 578, with...

US natural gas prices rose due to lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand. Inventory build slightly higher than expected. Henry Hub...

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...