Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Huawei has announced to have a new design methodology that is, in effect, a workaround EUV machines that can't be sold to China. </li>
<li>That could be equivalent to 1.4 nm process by 2031, as per Huawei. Huawei didn't now produce any supporting document, design principle, benchmark, etc </li>
<li>What Huawei meant to say is: they got an EUV workaround. But for now, it's an announcement. See you in 2031. </li>
</ul>


Huawei has announced to have a new design methodology that is, in effect, a workaround EUV machines that can't be sold to China. 
That could be equivalent to 1.4 nm process by 2031, as per Huawei. Huawei didn't now produce any supporting document, design principle, benchmark, etc 
What Huawei meant to say is: they got an EUV workaround. But for now, it's an announcement. See you in 2031. 


Huawei Is Going to Make 1.4nm Chips! Huawei Didn’t Say That

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.</li>
<li>Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. </li>
<li>Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.</li>
</ul>


The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.
Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. 
Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.


What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>CTAs are positioned in Asia uptrends, but the stocks that support it are losing momentum.</li>
<li>We uncovered stocks that sit outside the CTA trade that may be less vulnerable to outflows.</li>
<li>Tech uptrends remain intact, just lower their weight and make room for less volatile trends in financials.</li>
</ul>


CTAs are positioned in Asia uptrends, but the stocks that support it are losing momentum.
We uncovered stocks that sit outside the CTA trade that may be less vulnerable to outflows.
Tech uptrends remain intact, just lower their weight and make room for less volatile trends in financials.


CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC (2330) Sets New Record in 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.08, Upgrading Full-Year USD Revenue Growth to Over 30%.</li>
<li>From a product mix perspective, advanced processes continue to drive this quarter’s growth and profitability.</li>
<li>Chairman stated that with sustained strong demand for advanced processes and robust AI momentum, even amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


TSMC (2330) Sets New Record in 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.08, Upgrading Full-Year USD Revenue Growth to Over 30%.
From a product mix perspective, advanced processes continue to drive this quarter’s growth and profitability.
Chairman stated that with sustained strong demand for advanced processes and robust AI momentum, even amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.1, with Full-Year USD Revenue Growth Over 30%.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Huawei Is Going to Make 1.4nm Chips! Huawei Didn’t Say That

Huawei announces new design methodology to bypass EUV machine restrictions, aiming for 1.4 nm process by 2031. No supporting evidence provided yet.

Nicolas Baratte

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

Trend followers are long Asian equities, but the mega-cap leaders are decelerating. If CTAs unwind, what survives? Hold strength at lower weights...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.1, with Full-Year USD Revenue Growth Over 30%.

TSMC achieves record EPS in 1Q26, driven by strong demand for advanced processes and AI, upgrading full-year revenue growth to over 30%.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Huawei Is Going to Make 1.4nm Chips! Huawei Didn’t Say That

​Huawei announces new design methodology to bypass EUV machine restrictions, aiming for 1.4 nm process by 2031. No supporting evidence provided yet.

Nicolas Baratte

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

​The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan

Trend followers are long Asian equities, but the mega-cap leaders are decelerating. If CTAs unwind, what survives? Hold strength at lower weights...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q26 with EPS of NT$22.1, with Full-Year USD Revenue Growth Over 30%.

​TSMC achieves record EPS in 1Q26, driven by strong demand for advanced processes and AI, upgrading full-year revenue growth to over 30%.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Huawei announces new design methodology to bypass EUV machine restrictions, aiming for 1.4 nm process by 2031. No supporting evidence provided yet.

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

TSMC achieves record EPS in 1Q26, driven by strong demand for advanced processes and AI, upgrading full-year revenue growth to over 30%.

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...