Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.</li>
<li>FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005</li>
<li>Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $19.62 billion, at the high end of guidance, up 13.8% QoQ and down 1.5% YoY. Net profit margin of 38.2% results in net income of ~$7.5 billion.
FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005
Bullish FY24 forecast for &gt;20% YoY growth sends share price soaring in overnight trading. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.</li>
<li>TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.</li>
<li>2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

<ul>
<li>The factor of seasonality will be evolved in 1Q24F, but 2Q24F should be picking up most likely.</li>
<li>The Semiconductor cycle shall be reaching the bottom and no more correction, to our expectation.  </li>
<li>The recent changes of Silergy's management didn't affect the reality.  </li>
</ul>


The factor of seasonality will be evolved in 1Q24F, but 2Q24F should be picking up most likely.
The Semiconductor cycle shall be reaching the bottom and no more correction, to our expectation.  
The recent changes of Silergy's management didn't affect the reality.  


Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC. Roaring Into Year Of The Dragon

FY23 revenues of $69.3 billion, down 8.7% YoY, only the second such down year since 2005. Bullish FY24 forecast for >20% YoY growth sends share...

William Keating

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

​TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

​TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Silergy (6415.TT): Nothing Fundamental Changed in Reality; Semiconductor Cycle Shall Be Bottomed Up.

​The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...

Patrick Liao

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

The semiconductor cycle is expected to reach the bottom with seasonality evolving in 1Q24F, but a pickup is likely in 2Q24F. Changes in Silergy's...