Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 High Conviction for Upside >15% YoY

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

A Bull Investment Case for TSMC (Summary Version)

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.</li>
<li>TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.</li>
<li>2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.