Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.</li>
<li>Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.</li>
<li>The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.</li>
</ul>


The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.
Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.
The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.