TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.</li>
<li>CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.</li>
<li>Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.</li>
</ul>


Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.</li>
<li>Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.</li>
<li>Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.
Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.
Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.</li>
<li>ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.</li>
<li>UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.
ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.
UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chips / In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage</li><li>Hong Kong / Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus</li><li>Central bank / China’s central bank gets new deputy governor</li></ul>

Chips / In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortageHong Kong / Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodusCentral bank / China’s central bank gets new deputy governor

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns</li>
<li>Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia</li>
<li>We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins</li>
</ul>


We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns
Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia
We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins


Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CX Daily: The Sudden Reversal of the Global Chip Shortage

In Depth: The sudden reversal of the global chip shortage. Hong Kong unveils new visa, property tax policies to stanch talent exodus

Caixin Global

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments