Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value - is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday</li>
<li>The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done</li>
<li>SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse</li>
</ul>


Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value - is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse


SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> was hoping for better luck with its listing this time around.</li>
<li>For placements, it was a very busy week for a change with most regions, apart from Hong Kong, chipping in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) was hoping for better luck with its listing this time around.
For placements, it was a very busy week for a change with most regions, apart from Hong Kong, chipping in.


ECM Weekly (11th Mar 2024) - Oriental Land, ARM, Tuhu, Wiwynn, Macrotech, Zomato, Trial Holding

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe that Arm is now valued as a “growth at any price” stock; with nearly half of SoftBank group’s equity value reliant on Arm, NAV downside risk is rising</li>
<li>The risk of JPY appreciation is real, whilst SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 85% of its equity value in private companies</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 55%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential JPY appreciation, should keep the discount wide</li>
</ul>


We believe that Arm is now valued as a “growth at any price” stock; with nearly half of SoftBank group’s equity value reliant on Arm, NAV downside risk is rising
The risk of JPY appreciation is real, whilst SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 85% of its equity value in private companies
Softbank shares trade at a 55%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential JPY appreciation, should keep the discount wide


Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments.<br/></p>

  Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments. 

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value</li>
<li>We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2</li>
<li>We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation</li>
</ul>


There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value
We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2
We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Softbank Group (9984 JP)

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

SoftBank's Arm faces valuation hurdles as shares drop 12%, while JPY weakness may reverse due to Fed and BoJ actions. SoftBank shares trade at a...

Victor Galliano

ECM Weekly (11th Mar 2024) - Oriental Land, ARM, Tuhu, Wiwynn, Macrotech, Zomato, Trial Holding

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

SoftBank's reliance on Arm's super-premium valuation, the prospect of JPY appreciation and higher funding costs for SVF2 private entities,...

Victor Galliano

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable...

Lucror Analytics