Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Spindex Industries Limited manufactures, imports, exports, and deals mechanical, electrical, and electronic parts.  The Company also manufactures and trades precision machine parts, plastic molds and injections, and other related plastic and engineering materials.

<ul>
<li>On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.</li>
<li>The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Spindex_Scheme%20Document.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=868915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out,</a> with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.
The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORPORATION, a member of the Toyota Motor Group, assembles motor vehicles and manufactures automotive parts such as engines and air conditioner compressors.  The Company also produces industrial equipment and textile machinery as well as electronic devices such as computer modems and power inverters.

<ul>
<li>At ¥17,340/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a>'s words: "Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise."</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is cheap. Corporate governance supporting this deal is shocking. In Travis Lundy's words: "Stay long. Buy more. And make some noise."
Preceding my comments on Toyota are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

Predictive Discovery Ltd. explores for gold in Burkina Faso in Africa, and uranium in Australia.  The Company operates in the Fada N'Gourma and Manga-Sebba greenstone belts in Burkina Faso; and in Northern Territory, Australia.

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

ANE (Cayman) Inc. operates as an integrated logistics company. The Company provides sorting, line-haul transportation, pickup and dispatch services, and other services. ANE (Cayman) offers services in China.

<ul>
<li>On the 28th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>, a road freight transportation play, announced a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.</li>
<li>The consortium offered HK$12.18/share, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed. A special dividend was bolted on. All pre-cons, including SAMR's approval, have been satisfied. Scheme Doc dispatch expected on/before 31st December.</li>
<li>I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and yesterday pinned down a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror.</li>
</ul>


On the 28th October, ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
The consortium offered HK$12.18/share, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed. A special dividend was bolted on. All pre-cons, including SAMR's approval, have been satisfied. Scheme Doc dispatch expected on/before 31st December.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and yesterday pinned down a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror.


HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

David Blennerhassett
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

Clean deal. Trading at 1.4%/7.7% gross/annualised. If small, illiquid arbs are your thing, and not in, it may be worth a punt. Otherwise look...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Don't Sell Toyota Inds (6201 JP) - Buy More

At ¥17,340/share, Toyota Industries is cheap. Corporate governance is shocking. Stay long. Buy more. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even...

David Blennerhassett

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA

I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today.

David Blennerhassett