Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.</li>
<li>
 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.</li>
<li>
Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"</li>
</ul>



 What production fabs and capacity? Intel's Arizona 10nm Fab 12, 22, 32, which are mostly depreciated. Intel will provide nearly 30k/m 12" capacity for UMC at the first stage.

 Who's 12nm node and design rule? UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule for customers to produce WiFi 7, TV controller, and other products.

Other discussions include: "Who will operate the fabs?", "How to share sales/profits?", "Mass production time?", "Why benefits to Intel?", "Why benefits to UMC?", "Will TSMC get hurt?"


Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron</li>
<li>Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead


Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

<ul>
<li>As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.</li>
<li>SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.</li>
</ul>


As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.
SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.


Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The WiFi technology was dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-corp-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:999:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)</a>, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.</li>
<li>There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.</li>
<li>MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.</li>
</ul>


The WiFi technology was dominated by Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US), but Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.
There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.
MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are working Together? Customers will use UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule to produce WiFi 7, TV...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are Working Together?

Are You Confused About What Intel and UMC Are working Together? Customers will use UMC's tsmc-like 12nm design rule to produce WiFi 7, TV...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

​A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. ​In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...