Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.</li>
<li>Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.</li>
<li>Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors</li>
<li>GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.</li>
<li>Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.</li>
</ul>


More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors
GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.
Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.


What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.</li>
<li>LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.</li>
<li>Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.</li>
</ul>


Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.
LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.
Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.


Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>It remains cautiously optimistic for the 2024 outlook despite limited order visibility.  </li>
<li>The Vanguard wafer shipment has decreased by 8-10% QoQ, with the ASP declining by 0-2% QoQ. The GM for 4Q23F is projected to be 22-24%. </li>
<li>The smartphone and computing/NB/TV sectors have returned to normal levels.</li>
</ul>


It remains cautiously optimistic for the 2024 outlook despite limited order visibility.  
The Vanguard wafer shipment has decreased by 8-10% QoQ, with the ASP declining by 0-2% QoQ. The GM for 4Q23F is projected to be 22-24%. 
The smartphone and computing/NB/TV sectors have returned to normal levels.


Vanguard (5347.TT): The Smartphone and Computing/NB/TV Sectors Have Turned to Normal.

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales? PC/server, PMIC, CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF, gaming GPU card, memory...

Andrew Lu

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Smartphone and Computing/NB/TV Sectors Have Turned to Normal.

It remains cautiously optimistic for the 2024 outlook despite limited order visibility. The smartphone and computing/NB/TV sectors have returned...

Patrick Liao

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

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