Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The recent quarter's performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing domains.</li><li>Garnering revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, NVIDIA continues to benefit from burgeoning demand in the accelerated computing and AI sectors, setting a new record with a $10 billion sequential revenue growth.</li><li>Such figures underscore the company's position within the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape.</li></ul>

The recent quarter's performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing domains.Garnering revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, NVIDIA continues to benefit from burgeoning demand in the accelerated computing and AI sectors, setting a new record with a $10 billion sequential revenue growth.Such figures underscore the company's position within the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape.

Nvidia's $2 Billion Synopsys Bet: AI Chip Design Just Got A Massive Upgrade!

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> started correcting at the end of October 2025. At the same time, in early November, SoftBank Group announced it was unloading all its NVDA stake. </li>
<li>SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, speaking at an investment forum in Tokyo Monday,  revealed he was reluctant to sell SoftBank's Nvidia stake, but needed to raise cash for new AI investments.</li>
<li>Both companies are very oversold according to our models, NVDA has reached a point where is a good BUY, we present here a new analytics tool, to support this theory.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) started correcting at the end of October 2025. At the same time, in early November, SoftBank Group announced it was unloading all its NVDA stake. 
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son, speaking at an investment forum in Tokyo Monday,  revealed he was reluctant to sell SoftBank's Nvidia stake, but needed to raise cash for new AI investments.
Both companies are very oversold according to our models, NVDA has reached a point where is a good BUY, we present here a new analytics tool, to support this theory.


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble</li>
<li>While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees</li>
<li>There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.</li>
</ul>


After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble
While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees
There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.


NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.</li>
<li>The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.</li>
<li>Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s warranty liabilities have ballooned from $1.29B in Q4 FY25 to $2.7B in Q3 FY26, with actual warranty spending surging 14× YoY.
The jump comes as Blackwell-generation racks grow hotter, denser and more complex (up to 2 million individual parts), driving higher expected incident rates.
Rising warranty reserves paired with rising finished-goods inventory suggest the same underlying tension that systems are getting harder to operate and harder to absorb downstream.


The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

<ul>
<li>Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.</li>
<li>Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.</li>
<li>Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia’s multi-year cloud service commitments jumped from $12.6B to $26B in one quarter, but only $1B is due in cash before late FY26, raising questions about the immediacy of demand.
Nvidia is backstopping customer infrastructure via an $860M facility lease guarantee, with only $470M escrowed; effectively transferring counterparty credit risk onto Nvidia’s balance sheet.
Structurally, this resembles circular financing, where customers take on debt (facilitated by Nvidia) to secure future compute capacity, enabling Nvidia to book future revenue while cash conversion lags.


How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia's $2 Billion Synopsys Bet: AI Chip Design Just Got A Massive Upgrade!

The recent quarter's performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing...

Baptista Research

NVDA Tactical Outlook: Time to BUY?

NVIDIA Corp started correcting in Nov 2025, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiment around the stock, but our model finds NVDA now may...

Nico Rosti

NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive...

William Keating

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia's $2 Billion Synopsys Bet: AI Chip Design Just Got A Massive Upgrade!

The recent quarter's performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing...

Baptista Research

NVDA Tactical Outlook: Time to BUY?

​NVIDIA Corp started correcting in Nov 2025, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiment around the stock, but our model finds NVDA now may...

Nico Rosti

NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive...

William Keating

The Cost of Running Hot: Nvidia's Warranty Reserves Spike 168%

​Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Mint Finance

How Much of Nvidia’s Demand Is Nvidia-Enabled?

​Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Corp started correcting in Nov 2025, there is a mix of positive and negative sentiment around the stock, but our model finds NVDA now may...

Nvidia's warranty liabilities have doubled in a year due to increasing complexity and heat in their Blackwell-generation racks, leading to higher...

Nvidia's cloud service commitments surge to $26B, with only $1B due in cash before late FY26, raising concerns about demand and circular financing...