IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a> IFA opines that shareholders approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB) IFA opines that shareholders approve Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s delisting tender offer of THB59.00 per share at the EGM on 3 May.
The offer is conditional on Oishi shareholder approval which requires 75% approval by total outstanding shares and &lt;10% rejection by total outstanding shares.
The offer is attractive to the IFA’s fair value of THB53.48-56.42 per share. At last close and the end-July completion, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 8.1%, respectively.


Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> was hit by COVID lockdowns in 3Q2021 but the recovery has already started for its retail and packaging businesses, especially in Vietnam for the latter.</li>
<li>The company's expansion plans for Mini Big C continue apace, as well conversions to Food Place and its store renovation program, which points toward a strong growth recovery in 2022.</li>
<li>The competitive intensity in Thai retail is reducing, with CP Group's acquisition of Tesco Thailand reducing major players to two, whilst there is a further restructuring under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro Public.</a>
</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) was hit by COVID lockdowns in 3Q2021 but the recovery has already started for its retail and packaging businesses, especially in Vietnam for the latter.
The company's expansion plans for Mini Big C continue apace, as well conversions to Food Place and its store renovation program, which points toward a strong growth recovery in 2022.
The competitive intensity in Thai retail is reducing, with CP Group's acquisition of Tesco Thailand reducing major players to two, whilst there is a further restructuring under Siam Makro Public.



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Canned Recovery in Motion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a> - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.

The SET50 Index is one of the very few indices that is still weighted by full market cap. Stocks need to have a minimum free float of 20% to be eligible for index inclusion but the free float is not used to determine the weight of the stock in the index.This had led to stocks with low free floats having an inordinately high weight in the index. The most recent case in point was Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) - the stock was an inclusion in the SET50 index at the December review. DELTA is now the third largest stock in the index with a 6.07% weighting, even though the SET free float of the stock is only 22.35%. The stock has jumped 1000% over the last year.Media reports now indicate that there are changes brewing that could result in the SET revising the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and a change to the calculation methodology of the SET50 Index that would see it move from a full market cap weighted index to a free float market cap weighted index.In this Insight, we take a look at the stocks that would be affected by the changes and the impact of passive fund trading on the stocks.

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is finally starting to see the light of day across is numerous consumer-related businesses in3Q2020, from its core Thai retail business through BigC to its aluminum can and glass bottling across SE Asia, as well as its consumer supply chain business. The company's packaging supply chain business, which includes glass bottling and aluminum cans continues to see improvements since the trough in 2Q2020, with cans driving by new sizes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a>'s Big C retail business under modern supply chain continues to suffer from the lack of tourists in Thailand but is seeing some improvements with Mini BigC doing especially well. Rentals have started to pick up, which is positive for profitability going forward. The company's consumer supply chain business has seen a decent pick up with 3Q2020 sales growing by +15.1% YoY and +12.6% YoY for 9M2020 driven by non-food, international trading, and logistics.Valuations look attractive versus historical levels, especially in view of an impending recovery, with the company trading on 22.7x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average of 28.3x forward PER.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is finally starting to see the light of day across is numerous consumer-related businesses in3Q2020, from its core Thai retail business through BigC to its aluminum can and glass bottling across SE Asia, as well as its consumer supply chain business. The company's packaging supply chain business, which includes glass bottling and aluminum cans continues to see improvements since the trough in 2Q2020, with cans driving by new sizes. Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s Big C retail business under modern supply chain continues to suffer from the lack of tourists in Thailand but is seeing some improvements with Mini BigC doing especially well. Rentals have started to pick up, which is positive for profitability going forward. The company's consumer supply chain business has seen a decent pick up with 3Q2020 sales growing by +15.1% YoY and +12.6% YoY for 9M2020 driven by non-food, international trading, and logistics.Valuations look attractive versus historical levels, especially in view of an impending recovery, with the company trading on 22.7x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average of 28.3x forward PER. 

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Consumer Kingpin on the Cusp of Recovery

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> was hit quite hard in 2Q2020 in both its core retail and packaging businesses after a reasonable performance in 1Q2020 before the lockdown in Thailand and Vietnam took hold and during a period when consumers began stocking up. 
The real impact on the company's packaging business came in mid-April when the Thai government put an alcohol ban in place, which was lifted in mid-May but led breweries to close operations for 4-6 weeks. 
The ban was gradually lifted for retail stores initially followed by restaurants and bars and as a result, June saw recovery and July beer sales almost back to pre-COVID-19 levels. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> non-alcohol bottling saw positive momentum from strong growth in sales of Vitamin C drinks. It also saw a strong response to its new 500ml cans, which are popular for home beer consumption. 
The aluminium can division has also seen the benefits of new customers coming on stream and replacing the gap left by reduced demand from Carabao. It is also seeing some scale benefits as a result of this for its slim cans.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'</a>s core retail business under Big C saw a serious impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020 with total sales down by -11.4%, with SSSG -17% but excluding its B-to-B business, SSSG fell an even greater -21.1% in 2Q2020.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> remains a well-rounded South East Asia recovery story through its packaging, with exposure to Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as retail, with its number two position in Thailand in the hypermarket and supermarket space.
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Valuations look attractive versus history and with the prospect of a rapid recovery next year with the company trading in 22.0x FY21E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 29x, especially given a strong forecast recovery in earnings over the next two years. It also trades at a discount to Thai retail peers, despite a more positive earnings outlook. 
</div>

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) was hit quite hard in 2Q2020 in both its core retail and packaging businesses after a reasonable performance in 1Q2020 before the lockdown in Thailand and Vietnam took hold and during a period when consumers began stocking up. 
The real impact on the company's packaging business came in mid-April when the Thai government put an alcohol ban in place, which was lifted in mid-May but led breweries to close operations for 4-6 weeks. 
The ban was gradually lifted for retail stores initially followed by restaurants and bars and as a result, June saw recovery and July beer sales almost back to pre-COVID-19 levels. 
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) non-alcohol bottling saw positive momentum from strong growth in sales of Vitamin C drinks. It also saw a strong response to its new 500ml cans, which are popular for home beer consumption. 
The aluminium can division has also seen the benefits of new customers coming on stream and replacing the gap left by reduced demand from Carabao. It is also seeing some scale benefits as a result of this for its slim cans.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s core retail business under Big C saw a serious impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020 with total sales down by -11.4%, with SSSG -17% but excluding its B-to-B business, SSSG fell an even greater -21.1% in 2Q2020.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains a well-rounded South East Asia recovery story through its packaging, with exposure to Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, as well as retail, with its number two position in Thailand in the hypermarket and supermarket space.

Valuations look attractive versus history and with the prospect of a rapid recovery next year with the company trading in 22.0x FY21E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 29x, especially given a strong forecast recovery in earnings over the next two years. It also trades at a discount to Thai retail peers, despite a more positive earnings outlook. 


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - SE Asia's Consumer Recovery Proxy

Thailand

Carabao Group Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based holding company primarily investing in subsidiaries that produce, market, sell, and distribute energy drinks and other beverages both domestically and internationally. Their product range includes carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks, vitamin C drinks, coffee products, and drinking water under brands like Carabao, Carabao Sport, and Woody C+ Lock. The company also manufactures and distributes packaging products such as bottles, glass products, and aluminum cans. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was established in 2001.

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Carabao Group (CBG TB)

Oishi Group (OISHI TB): IFA Recommends the THB59.00 Delisting Offer

The THB59.00 offer is attractive. The IFA’s fair value is THB53.48-56.42 per share. At the last close and the end-July completion, the annualised...

Arun George

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Canned Recovery in Motion

Berli Jucker (BJC TTB) is on the cusp of a strong recovery going into 4Q2021, and even more so in 2021, mainly driven by its retail and packaging...

Angus Mackintosh

SET50 Index: Change to Free Float Weighting In the Works?

There is a strong possibility that the SET revises the calculation methodology to more accurately determine the free float of stocks, and changes...

Brian Freitas

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Consumer Kingpin on the Cusp of Recovery

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains an interesting proxy for domestic consumer recovery in SE Asia through its consumer packaging business, and more...

Angus Mackintosh

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - SE Asia's Consumer Recovery Proxy

Berli Jucker (BJC TB)

Angus Mackintosh

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