Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.1% as of Dec 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.2ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, real estate and offset by utilities, health care, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.1% as of Dec 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.2ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, real estate and offset by utilities, health care, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 15th): CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) </a> (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet </li>
<li>Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases </li>
<li>CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)  (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet 
Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases 
CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory 


China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$359.9 million, led by information technology, health care, utilities sectors, and offset by financials, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD, CMB, Wuliangye, Midea, CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$359.9 million, led by information technology, health care, utilities sectors, and offset by financials, materials.
We highlight flows for Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD, CMB, Wuliangye, Midea, CATL.


Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD

<ul>
<li>China stock market despair has brought down  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   </li>
<li>Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins </li>
<li>Using the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  </li>
</ul>


China stock market despair has brought down  China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   
Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins 
Using the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  


2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

NORTHBOUND Mainland Connect saw significant net outflows. It would have been a lot smaller but Friday mid-day saw a HUGE net buy day become a net...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 15th): CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

NORTHBOUND Mainland Connect saw significant net outflows. It would have been a lot smaller but Friday mid-day saw a HUGE net buy day become a net...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 15th): CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CMB, China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

​China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

Northbound Flows (Dec 1st): Hygon Information, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, BYD

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

​China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...