Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yangtze Optical Fibre And H / Event-Driven

Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable Joint Stock Limited Company manufactures fiber and cable products. The Company researches, designs, develops, produces, processes, and sells communication fibers, communication cables, specialty fibers, and fiber optics related products. Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable markets its products domestically and internationally.

<ul>
<li>Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.87%. Beautiful Skew behaved BADLY. Spreads were a bit all over the place.</li>
<li>Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+11-13bp). Low H/A "beta" helps. Stay the Beautiful Skew course.</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.87%. Beautiful Skew behaved BADLY. Spreads were a bit all over the place.
Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+11-13bp). Low H/A "beta" helps. Stay the Beautiful Skew course.
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 19 Dec 2025):  Hs Underperform Again, Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>HK$82bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$90+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down. Net rebounded to +HK$16bn.</li>
<li>Relatively high div low vol SOEs were net sold. Again. This is getting heavy. It matters because some have less international buying support (they are Trump military names).</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


HK$82bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$90+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down. Net rebounded to +HK$16bn.
Relatively high div low vol SOEs were net sold. Again. This is getting heavy. It matters because some have less international buying support (they are Trump military names).
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 19 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Net Buying, but High-Div SOEs Sold

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Index Rebalance

G Mining Ventures Corp. acquires, explores, and develops gold mineral properties.

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 19 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform Again, Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly

Hs underperformed their A partner within the AH pair universe this past week. Every sector was bad. Consumer the worst. Beautiful Skew behaved very...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 19 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Net Buying, but High-Div SOEs Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows are still low in a year-end-lull but net flows are back to positive. High-div SOEs are seeing outflow. TECH and CONSUMER seeing...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy