Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

G Mining Ventures Corp. acquires, explores, and develops gold mineral properties.

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

Event-Driven

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>. At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  </li>
<li>There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.</li>
<li>This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.</li>
</ul>


Over the weekend the Nikkei reported that Nippon Life would bid ¥60bn for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP). At one price per share, that meant ¥1,585.  
There is a deemed dividend treatment buyback for SBI at ¥1,189 which means they will end up with a capital loss (their in-price is ¥1,630) but they'll offset that.
This is the biggest win for minorities in a long while. Be happy.


[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

MANDOM CORPORATION manufactures and markets a variety of cosmetic products for men and women.  The Company's products include hair care and skin care cosmetics.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei came out post-close with an <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB0996J0Z01C25A2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> saying that KKR had offered "more than 10%" ("higher than ¥2,800") for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> vs the revised ¥2,520 CVC Bid.</li>
<li>Mandom announced a revision to the Opinion Statement to include some but not a lot of details. That triggers an extension to the deal, closing 5 Jan vs 18 Dec.</li>
<li>The language in the Mandom release is kind of interesting. This price gets us closer, but it may not be high enough.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei came out post-close with an article saying that KKR had offered "more than 10%" ("higher than ¥2,800") for Mandom Corp (4917 JP) vs the revised ¥2,520 CVC Bid.
Mandom announced a revision to the Opinion Statement to include some but not a lot of details. That triggers an extension to the deal, closing 5 Jan vs 18 Dec.
The language in the Mandom release is kind of interesting. This price gets us closer, but it may not be high enough.


[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

<ul>
<li>Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.78% on A-share index rebal week. Beautiful Skew behaved better. H Utilities were bought.</li>
<li>Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+23bp). Stay the Beautiful Skew course.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.78% on A-share index rebal week. Beautiful Skew behaved better. H Utilities were bought.
Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+23bp). Stay the Beautiful Skew course.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025):  Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nippon Life Shoots the Lights Out with a Bid at ¥1,693

SBI bought high early, then added more on successive steps down, buying their last 5% at 75-80% below their firs 20%. That left their average price...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Reports KKR Has Proposed an Overbid for Mandom (4917) At ¥2800+

Nikkei has said KKR has proposed a bid for Mandom at ¥2,800+. That puts the fox in the henhouse. This is not an "unwelcome" situation. It was the...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought

A/H premia were slightly higher on the week this past week. Pharmas and Utilities saw Hs outperform. Consumer names, Energy, and Banks saw As...

Travis Lundy