Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.</li>
<li>The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.</li>
<li>Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.
The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.
Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.


Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> reported flat sales of ¥39.1B in FY25. However, sales from Premium kits rose 18%. Surgical kits category contributed 66% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Higher costs dented operating margin by 100 bps while net profit declined 46% YoY to ¥1.5B due to higher tax outgo.</li>
<li>The company guided FY26 sales to grow 7% to ¥41.8B, with profits also expected to witness mid to high single digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥39.1B in FY25. However, sales from Premium kits rose 18%. Surgical kits category contributed 66% of total revenue.
Higher costs dented operating margin by 100 bps while net profit declined 46% YoY to ¥1.5B due to higher tax outgo.
The company guided FY26 sales to grow 7% to ¥41.8B, with profits also expected to witness mid to high single digit growth.


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Premium Kits Carry It Through, Recovery in Sight in H2FY26

Japan

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

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Hogy Medical (3593 JP)

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

Carlyle has launched a tender offer to acquire Hogy Medical offering ¥6,700 per share. We had highlighted about the possibility of going private in...

Tina Banerjee