Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.</li>
<li>The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.</li>
<li>Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.
The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.
Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.


Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. stocks edged lower as AI leaders slid, dragging the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Dow, while investors rotated into cyclicals and healthcare ahead of key delayed U.S. economic data.</li>
<li>Activist investors plan to lift their stake in Fuji Media Holdings to up to 33.3% unless progress is made on selling or separating its real estate business.</li>
<li>Hogy Medical shares jumped 17% after reports Carlyle seeks a $1bn take-private, an attractive exit for shareholders amid activist pressure, stagnant sales and declining earnings.</li>
</ul>


U.S. stocks edged lower as AI leaders slid, dragging the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Dow, while investors rotated into cyclicals and healthcare ahead of key delayed U.S. economic data.
Activist investors plan to lift their stake in Fuji Media Holdings to up to 33.3% unless progress is made on selling or separating its real estate business.
Hogy Medical shares jumped 17% after reports Carlyle seeks a $1bn take-private, an attractive exit for shareholders amid activist pressure, stagnant sales and declining earnings.


Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Slip as AI Leaders Weigh

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> reported flat sales of ¥39.1B in FY25. However, sales from Premium kits rose 18%. Surgical kits category contributed 66% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Higher costs dented operating margin by 100 bps while net profit declined 46% YoY to ¥1.5B due to higher tax outgo.</li>
<li>The company guided FY26 sales to grow 7% to ¥41.8B, with profits also expected to witness mid to high single digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥39.1B in FY25. However, sales from Premium kits rose 18%. Surgical kits category contributed 66% of total revenue.
Higher costs dented operating margin by 100 bps while net profit declined 46% YoY to ¥1.5B due to higher tax outgo.
The company guided FY26 sales to grow 7% to ¥41.8B, with profits also expected to witness mid to high single digit growth.


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Premium Kits Carry It Through, Recovery in Sight in H2FY26

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> reported flat sales of ¥30B in 9MFY25. Sales of surgical kit products rose 3.2%, to ¥20B, of which Premium Kit sales climbed 7.8%, to ¥13.2B.</li>
<li>Higher costs dented operating margin by 40 bps while net profit rose 5% YoY to ¥2.7B due to an extraordinary gain from sale of investment.</li>
<li>The company reiterated guidance for FY25 of a rise in sales of 5% to ¥40.9B, with profits also witnessing double digit growth.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported flat sales of ¥30B in 9MFY25. Sales of surgical kit products rose 3.2%, to ¥20B, of which Premium Kit sales climbed 7.8%, to ¥13.2B.
Higher costs dented operating margin by 40 bps while net profit rose 5% YoY to ¥2.7B due to an extraordinary gain from sale of investment.
The company reiterated guidance for FY25 of a rise in sales of 5% to ¥40.9B, with profits also witnessing double digit growth.


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Results Reflect Macro Slackness, Not Much Recovery In Sight In Near Term

Japan

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

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Hogy Medical (3593 JP)

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

After a BBG article on 9 Dec and a Nikkei article this weekend sending Hogy Medical limit up y/day, this AM Hogy says Carlyle has bid ¥6700/share...

Travis Lundy

Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

Hogy Medical (3593 JP) sees sales drop in H1FY26, revises FY26 guidance downwards. Stock recommended as a SELL on the back of bleak fundamentals...

Tina Banerjee

Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Slip as AI Leaders Weigh

U.S. stocks dip as AI leaders falter, investors shift to cyclicals and healthcare; activist investors eye Fuji Media Holdings stake increase; Hogy...

Mark Chadwick