Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - no suprises there.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - no suprises there.
Key updates/news also took place on: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP), and Hogy Medical (3593 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Hogy Medical, Predictive Discovery, Meilan Airport, Low Keng Huat

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.</li>
<li>The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. </li>
<li>When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) and Carlyle have announced the Tender Offer at ¥6700, mooted by the Nikkei and confirmed by Hogy the other day.
The big activist Dalton Group with 27+% has agreed to tender, but has also agreed to buy back into Bidco, owning 20%. 
When the activist pushing for a deal decides not to sell, and instead to continue owning, the price is probably a bit light for everyone else, but this gets done.


[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.</li>
<li>The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.</li>
<li>Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) , in the last 10 fiscals, witnessed sales grow at CAGR of 1%. In tandem with that, company reported 4% drop sales to ¥18.9B in H1FY26.
The company revised FY26 sales guidance downwards to ¥39.2B (from previous ¥41.8B), with profits also witnessing considerable downward revision.
Stock to underperform and so we recommend a SELL on Hogy at this moment. Strategically, two possible outcomes open for Hogy, a take-over by another corporate entity or going private.


Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.</li>
<li>I discussed it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huge-hogy-medical-3593-buyback-from-the-founding-family" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.</li>
<li>The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.</li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.


[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction - Totally Unsurprising

Japan

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

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Hogy Medical (3593 JP)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Hogy Medical, Predictive Discovery, Meilan Airport, Low Keng Huat

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Carlyle Launches Their TOB at ¥6700, Dalton Agrees But Buys Back In

Carlyle deal for Hogy Medical is announced. I had thought ¥6700 high but given the assumptions and the fact that Dalton is joining the back end at...

Travis Lundy

Hogy (3593 JP): Can Activism Alone Save Hogy From Going Down a Spriral? Fundamentals Don’t Support

Carlyle has launched a tender offer to acquire Hogy Medical offering ¥6,700 per share. We had highlighted about the possibility of going private in...

Tina Banerjee