Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

RISO KYOIKU CO., LTD. operates cram schools (Juku) and provides academic tutoring and exam preparation on a one-on-one basis.  The Company's classes are primarily for elementary, junior, and high school students.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> formed a Business+Capital Alliance with prep/cram/etc school operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/riso-kyoiku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20848:1" rel="noopener">Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP)</a> in 2020. They bought 20% by 2021. Then went to 51% in 2024.</li>
<li>Now they want the rest. This is utterly unsurprising. And will be easy. Nobody else really wants this and Hulic controls it already. </li>
<li>This is fair enough as a price in my opinion. It is easy, small, illiquid, and roughly meaningless, except for one small quirk.</li>
</ul>



Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) formed a Business+Capital Alliance with prep/cram/etc school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) in 2020. They bought 20% by 2021. Then went to 51% in 2024.
Now they want the rest. This is utterly unsurprising. And will be easy. Nobody else really wants this and Hulic controls it already. 
This is fair enough as a price in my opinion. It is easy, small, illiquid, and roughly meaningless, except for one small quirk.


[Japan M&A] Hulic Takes Out Riso Kyoiku at ¥295/Share - Small, Unsurprising, Fair Enough, One Quirk.

TAIYO HOLDINGS CO., LTD. manufactures and sells resist inks for printed circuit boards.  The Company markets the products overseas through its sales and manufacturing subsidiaries in US, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and China.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.</li>
<li>The latter is a <em>trifle</em> concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. </li>
<li>HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.</li>
</ul>


The Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) tender offer was expected to start around now. It is delayed because "necessary procedures and actions" under Chinese antitrust and Japan Investment Approval remain incomplete.
The latter is a trifle concerning, but I expect this gets done. Earnings will be better than originally guided and in the management forecast underpinning the FAs' valuations. 
HOWEVER, they'd have to be a LOT better to trigger a re-rate. I don't think they get there but passive is big enough to make traders Oliver Twisty.


[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

BASE, Inc. offers internet based services. The Company provides net shop creation, shopping application development, online payment development, and other services. BASE provides its services throughout Japan.

<ul>
<li>On Friday 9 October, largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Z70F.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-10-11T23%3A47%3A48Z&amp;se=2031-10-09T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=ZlN8j9BAWwHMZwckJQPtCOc%2FoNMaRr8dEH65e45HT2Y%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> his new larger stake.</li>
<li>Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.</li>
<li>That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 9 October, largest BASE Inc (4477 JP) shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO Melco Holdings (6676 JP) (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), announced his new larger stake.
Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.
That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. 


[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Equity Capital Markets

CKD Corporation manufactures pneumatic equipment and control devices including valves, cylinders, filters, and dryers.  The Company also produces automated labor-saving machines such as integrated circuit (IC) production equipment, assembly machines, auto-transport machinery, and packaging machines for pharmaceutical products.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ckd-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15225:1" rel="noopener">Ckd Corp (6407 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering where multiple banks and an insurer will sell shares. Other banks and corporates and various mutual ownership associations will still hold.</li>
<li>The offering is "small" at 6x ADV and 6% but the stock is well held by actives already. Only 13% of Max Real World Float on offer here but... overhang.</li>
<li>The company is in the right AI/semicon/machinery space (stock up big last 18mos) but it isn't <em>dirt</em> cheap and expected growth is slower than you'd like for the multiple.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Ckd Corp (6407 JP) announced a secondary offering where multiple banks and an insurer will sell shares. Other banks and corporates and various mutual ownership associations will still hold.
The offering is "small" at 6x ADV and 6% but the stock is well held by actives already. Only 13% of Max Real World Float on offer here but... overhang.
The company is in the right AI/semicon/machinery space (stock up big last 18mos) but it isn't dirt cheap and expected growth is slower than you'd like for the multiple.


[Japan Offering] CKD (6407 JP) Sees Banks and an Insurer Sell; Buyback but Index Selling Offsets

Index Rebalance

HI-LEX CORPORATION manufactures control cables for automobiles, ships, medical equipment, and construction machines. It's products include parking brake cables transmission control cables, steering cables, and micro control cables. It also provides window regulator and power lift gate systems for automobiles. HI-LEX has subsidiaries in South Korea, the United States, Mexico, India, and Vietnam.

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, the TSE announced the TOPIX review for October 2026. This is a single large announcement covering a massive methodology change.</li>
<li>There are 35 ADDs (we estimated 33, got 32/33 right) and 684 Transitional DELETEs (we estimated 694, got 672/694).</li>
<li>This creates US$69bn of flows in October and $13bn of flows in November. Expect a fair bit of jockeying from today onward.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, the TSE announced the TOPIX review for October 2026. This is a single large announcement covering a massive methodology change.
There are 35 ADDs (we estimated 33, got 32/33 right) and 684 Transitional DELETEs (we estimated 694, got 672/694).
This creates US$69bn of flows in October and $13bn of flows in November. Expect a fair bit of jockeying from today onward.


[Quiddity Index] The Oct26 TOPIX Rebalance - 35 IN, 684 on a Slow Walk OUT; $69bn to Trade

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Travis Lundy
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events
• Quiddity Advisors

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

Traders are hoping for more on Taiyo Holdings. It is probably fruitless but there are reasons why people might hope. But that is probably all it is...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Maki-san has raised the possibility of a Tender Offer - a known-known because he previously stated he wanted 30+% and the new TOB rules require it....

Travis Lundy

[Japan Offering] CKD (6407 JP) Sees Banks and an Insurer Sell; Buyback but Index Selling Offsets

CKD sees financial crossholders doing a selldown. There is more behind eventually. Corporates too. Growthy sector. Lower growth projections than...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] The Oct26 TOPIX Rebalance - 35 IN, 684 on a Slow Walk OUT; $69bn to Trade

The TOPIX Rebal has been announced. 35 ADDs, 684 DELETEs. We had it at 33/694 (of which we were 97%/98% correct). We see October flows at US$69bn,...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Hulic Takes Out Riso Kyoiku at ¥295/Share - Small, Unsurprising, Fair Enough, One Quirk.

Hulic is taking out the rest of Riso Kyoiku minorities. This was just a matter of time. They'd been heading in that direction. This is an easy...

Travis Lundy

[Japan M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) - A Last Gasp of Likely Fruitless Optionality Remains

Traders are hoping for more on Taiyo Holdings. It is probably fruitless but there are reasons why people might hope. But that is probably all it is...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Maki-san has raised the possibility of a Tender Offer - a known-known because he previously stated he wanted 30+% and the new TOB rules require it....

Travis Lundy

[Japan Offering] CKD (6407 JP) Sees Banks and an Insurer Sell; Buyback but Index Selling Offsets

CKD sees financial crossholders doing a selldown. There is more behind eventually. Corporates too. Growthy sector. Lower growth projections than...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] The Oct26 TOPIX Rebalance - 35 IN, 684 on a Slow Walk OUT; $69bn to Trade

The TOPIX Rebal has been announced. 35 ADDs, 684 DELETEs. We had it at 33/694 (of which we were 97%/98% correct). We see October flows at US$69bn,...

Travis Lundy