Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KLine is the cheapest of the three Japan majors in terms of forward consensus PER. And forward EPS ratios are improving as the company buys back shares. </li>
<li>The CEO mentioned in December the possibility of additional shareholder return this fiscal year based on cashflow. </li>
<li>In this insight, we look at what he knew then, and what he might know now, and the chances for an additional buyback (and how it might work).</li>
</ul>


KLine is the cheapest of the three Japan majors in terms of forward consensus PER. And forward EPS ratios are improving as the company buys back shares. 
The CEO mentioned in December the possibility of additional shareholder return this fiscal year based on cashflow. 
In this insight, we look at what he knew then, and what he might know now, and the chances for an additional buyback (and how it might work).


KLINE (9107) - Chances for an Additional Buyback At Q3 Earnings?

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan.<strong> FOLLOW US to keep abreast</strong>
</li>
<li>OVERSEAS: Holidays last week - low liquidity, stocks+bonds higher, USD lower; This week: deluge of data with Employment key; MSFT-Activision deal in doubt; Apple production headwinds; China COVID unrest spreads </li>
<li>JAPAN: SHOCK !  Samurai Blues lost 0-1 to Costa Rica - A nation in pain;   Kishida support continues to wane; EPCO collusion fines;  Earnings pressure ahead for Shippers.</li>
</ul>


Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast

OVERSEAS: Holidays last week - low liquidity, stocks+bonds higher, USD lower; This week: deluge of data with Employment key; MSFT-Activision deal in doubt; Apple production headwinds; China COVID unrest spreads 
JAPAN: SHOCK !  Samurai Blues lost 0-1 to Costa Rica - A nation in pain;   Kishida support continues to wane; EPCO collusion fines;  Earnings pressure ahead for Shippers.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> had a shareholder return program in place in May. Earnings forecasts on 3 Nov were slightly disappointing so the stock sold off but...</li>
<li>The large buyback allowed investors to try to game the situation. Some may have, but this morning on the execution, VERY few Real World Float holders sold. </li>
<li>That leaves the stock squeezy going into a buyback to repurchase 20% of the Max Real World Float (including short-created longs). </li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) had a shareholder return program in place in May. Earnings forecasts on 3 Nov were slightly disappointing so the stock sold off but...
The large buyback allowed investors to try to game the situation. Some may have, but this morning on the execution, VERY few Real World Float holders sold. 
That leaves the stock squeezy going into a buyback to repurchase 20% of the Max Real World Float (including short-created longs). 


KLine (9107) Buyback Redux-Squared - Post-Buyback Could Get Squeezy

<ul>
<li>On Thursday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> announced earnings, lower-than-consensus guidance and a ¥100bn buyback via ToSTNeT-3 this week, and on market if not filled via ToSTNeT-3.</li>
<li>The stock fell 5+%. I wrote I thought it was a buy and that the buyback was "game-able." It rose 10+% from then til now. </li>
<li>That was the fun. Now we get the games. Positioning strategy matters. </li>
</ul>


On Thursday, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) announced earnings, lower-than-consensus guidance and a ¥100bn buyback via ToSTNeT-3 this week, and on market if not filled via ToSTNeT-3.
The stock fell 5+%. I wrote I thought it was a buy and that the buyback was "game-able." It rose 10+% from then til now. 
That was the fun. Now we get the games. Positioning strategy matters. 


KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) - ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance will be done in three parts due to the delisting of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4437:1" rel="noopener">Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)</a> and the relisting of Shizuoka Financial Group (5831).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC Corp (6273 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika Ltd (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy over 10 days ADV on the adds and there is a large impact of the funding trade given the add/delete size difference.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance will be done in three parts due to the delisting of Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) and the relisting of Shizuoka Financial Group (5831).

Nidec Corp (6594 JP), SMC Corp (6273 JP) and Hoya Corp (7741 JP) replace Unitika Ltd (3103 JP), Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP) and Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP). 
Passive trackers need to buy over 10 days ADV on the adds and there is a large impact of the funding trade given the add/delete size difference.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mostly on Expected Lines

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

KLINE (9107) - Chances for an Additional Buyback At Q3 Earnings?

KLine (9107) will report earnings on 3 Feb at lunchtime. By that time, Q3 results for ONE should be known and the existing ¥100bn buyback should be...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan | Samurai Blues

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

KLine (9107) Buyback Redux-Squared - Post-Buyback Could Get Squeezy

The buyback was large, but only Effissimo, and Mizuho, and 2mm shares more sold into it. That leaves ~19mm shares to buy in 16wks. That is 20-35%...

Travis Lundy

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen (9107)) - ToSTNeT-3 For All The Marbles

The KLine (9107) buyback is here. We've seen +11% in a day and a half since the knee-jerk response to results. Now we have a buyback of up to 35...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mostly on Expected Lines

There are 4 changes to the index that will be executed in three parts - changes were mostly expected. One-way turnover is expected at 2.68% and...

Brian Freitas

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