Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.</li>
<li>Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.</li>
<li>The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.
Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.
The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.


Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shinhan Financial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinhan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6978:1" rel="noopener">Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).</a>
</li>
<li>Affinity had sold half of its stake earlier in 2024, when the company witnessed a number of selldowns in 1H24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).

Affinity had sold half of its stake earlier in 2024, when the company witnessed a number of selldowns in 1H24.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>From 15th may to 17th June our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio returned 3.37% vs MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 2.62%. Overweight on Korea and stock selection in HK/China, Taiwan and Philippines helped.</li>
<li>Top 5 performers were Digiplus (+31.9%), SK Hynix (+27.1%), Hana Financials (+23.8%), Netease (+21%), CCB (+9.8%). The worst 5: Alibaba (-11.4%), BYD (-8.5%), Trip.Com (-7.4%), Titan (-7.2%), M&amp;M (-5.1%).</li>
<li>Our themes - tech investment momentum, Chinese consumption revival, cyclical recovery in India and dividend yield across the region - are working fine. We make no changes to our portfolio.</li>
</ul>


From 15th may to 17th June our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio returned 3.37% vs MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 2.62%. Overweight on Korea and stock selection in HK/China, Taiwan and Philippines helped.
Top 5 performers were Digiplus (+31.9%), SK Hynix (+27.1%), Hana Financials (+23.8%), Netease (+21%), CCB (+9.8%). The worst 5: Alibaba (-11.4%), BYD (-8.5%), Trip.Com (-7.4%), Titan (-7.2%), M&amp;M (-5.1%).
Our themes - tech investment momentum, Chinese consumption revival, cyclical recovery in India and dividend yield across the region - are working fine. We make no changes to our portfolio.


Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Woori Financial Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The “Value Up” initiative which kicked off in February 2024 has been intended to bring about corporate governance and market reforms which minority and especially foreign investors have long sought</li>
<li>So far, these voluntary reforms have brought positive albeit limited benefits to South Korean equities; presidential elections, with potential legislative change, should act as a positive valuation driver</li>
<li>We reiterate our positive views on Woori and Hana Financial which are the top banks based on our scorecard; these attributes are due to  attractive valuations and balance sheet credentials</li>
</ul>


The “Value Up” initiative which kicked off in February 2024 has been intended to bring about corporate governance and market reforms which minority and especially foreign investors have long sought
So far, these voluntary reforms have brought positive albeit limited benefits to South Korean equities; presidential elections, with potential legislative change, should act as a positive valuation driver
We reiterate our positive views on Woori and Hana Financial which are the top banks based on our scorecard; these attributes are due to  attractive valuations and balance sheet credentials


Korean Banks; Presidential Election Drives Positive View on Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs

Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).

Sumeet Singh

Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korean Banks; Presidential Election Drives Positive View on Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

South Korea's 2024 'Value Up' initiative to bring corporate governance reforms should be given a boost post presidential elections, with potential...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

​In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs

Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).

Sumeet Singh

Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

​Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korean Banks; Presidential Election Drives Positive View on Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

​South Korea's 2024 'Value Up' initiative to bring corporate governance reforms should be given a boost post presidential elections, with potential...

Victor Galliano

In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

South Korea's 2024 'Value Up' initiative to bring corporate governance reforms should be given a boost post presidential elections, with potential...