Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nestle sees strong growth potential in India, as its per capita packaged food consumption remains low.</li><li>With 60 million people expected to join the middle- and high-income segments by 2030, rising affordability will boost demand.</li><li>Nestle’s growth strategy focuses on efficiency, brand investment, and market share expansion to drive profitability.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle sees strong growth potential in India, as its per capita packaged food consumption remains low.With 60 million people expected to join the middle- and high-income segments by 2030, rising affordability will boost demand.Nestle’s growth strategy focuses on efficiency, brand investment, and market share expansion to drive profitability.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestlé India - Long-Term Drivers Intact; Rich Valuation Limits Upside

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We attended the Nestle India analyst meet where the company has given cautiously optimistic outlook on growth, notwithstanding near-term demand pressures led by high inflation and urban distress.</li><li>NEST will focus on volume led growth with range margin margins as current levels seem optimal post 600bps expansion since 2016. NEST continues to innovate with rising share of NPD (6-6.5% of sales) and is looking at major gains in Maggi, Chocolates, Beverages and OOH consumption.</li><li>We expect growth rates to accelerate given capacity expansion (Rs55bn in four years) and benefit from JV with Dr Reddy’s in the medical nutrition business.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We attended the Nestle India analyst meet where the company has given cautiously optimistic outlook on growth, notwithstanding near-term demand pressures led by high inflation and urban distress.NEST will focus on volume led growth with range margin margins as current levels seem optimal post 600bps expansion since 2016. NEST continues to innovate with rising share of NPD (6-6.5% of sales) and is looking at major gains in Maggi, Chocolates, Beverages and OOH consumption.We expect growth rates to accelerate given capacity expansion (Rs55bn in four years) and benefit from JV with Dr Reddy’s in the medical nutrition business.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India (NEST IN) - Focus on Volume Led Growth Amidst Tepid Urban Demand

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Beat on operating front: Nestle posted inline topline with revenue grew 4% YoY, primarily led by price hikes, while volume growth stood at ~1% YoY.</li><li>EBITDA declined 1% YoY while EBITDA margins declined 111bps YoY to 22.8% owing to a drop in gross margins by 222bps to 56.2% as coffee and cocoa prices remained firm and an increase in staff cost (up 18% YoY); however, it was offset by 6% cut in other expenses.</li><li>PAT grew by 6% YoY. The ongoing RURBAN strategy enhanced Distribution reach by 5% in the last twelve months.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Beat on operating front: Nestle posted inline topline with revenue grew 4% YoY, primarily led by price hikes, while volume growth stood at ~1% YoY.EBITDA declined 1% YoY while EBITDA margins declined 111bps YoY to 22.8% owing to a drop in gross margins by 222bps to 56.2% as coffee and cocoa prices remained firm and an increase in staff cost (up 18% YoY); however, it was offset by 6% cut in other expenses.PAT grew by 6% YoY. The ongoing RURBAN strategy enhanced Distribution reach by 5% in the last twelve months.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nestle India Ltd. - Result & Analyst Meet Takeaways; Maintain BUY

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.</li>
<li>These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.</li>
<li>Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.</li>
</ul>


The 56th GST Council Meeting is currently underway in New Delhi, having commenced on September 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM and will continue until September 4, 2025.
These are supposed to be "next-generation GST reforms" with a promise of implementing reforms as a "Diwali gift" for consumers.
Negative FII Participation, Negative Price Action, Rich Multiples coupled with Negative Earnings Revisions argue for a bearish positioning going into the "G" Day - Day of GST Reform Announcements.


A Trader's Guide To "G" Day | Positioning For "Next-Generation GST Reforms"

India

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

We forecast 2 changes for the Sensex in June, but there could be a third. Passives need to trade 7-19x delivery volume. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Nestlé India - Long-Term Drivers Intact; Rich Valuation Limits Upside

With 60 million people expected to join the middle- and high-income segments by 2030, rising affordability will boost demand.

Motilal Oswal