Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cybersecurity-firm-trend-micro-explores-sale-sources-say-2024-08-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. </li>
<li>The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. </li>
<li>On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?</li>
</ul>


A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. 
The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one's imagination to think about a possible sale price. 
On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn't reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?


Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.</li>
<li>Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. </li>
</ul>


Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>NAND memory spot prices surge another 17% WoW on worsening S/D dynamics.</li>
<li>No take-over for Trend Micro, but an accelerated buyback will be enough for a short-term squeeze.</li>
<li>Sanken may be back in focus given its deep disc NAV as sentiment rises for power and industrial names.</li>
</ul>


NAND memory spot prices surge another 17% WoW on worsening S/D dynamics.
No take-over for Trend Micro, but an accelerated buyback will be enough for a short-term squeeze.
Sanken may be back in focus given its deep disc NAV as sentiment rises for power and industrial names.


Japan Morning Connection: Power and Industrial Semis in Focus After Infineon Big Beat on AI

<ul>
<li>Pure Storage surging 32% showcasing the growth potential for NAND as a viable and cost effective storage medium for AI/enterprise use. Watch Kioxia.</li>
<li>HP up but its printing business not so good -however this could be a 'bad is good' scenario for Japan's desperately in need of consolidation printer industry.</li>
<li>Marvell getting hit hard after-hours may see ASIC related Socionext trade lower.</li>
</ul>


Pure Storage surging 32% showcasing the growth potential for NAND as a viable and cost effective storage medium for AI/enterprise use. Watch Kioxia.
HP up but its printing business not so good -however this could be a 'bad is good' scenario for Japan's desperately in need of consolidation printer industry.
Marvell getting hit hard after-hours may see ASIC related Socionext trade lower.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shakes off Initial Weakness with Talks of Blackwell Sales to China

<ul>
<li>HDD plays WD and Seagate pulling ahead of NAND plays but there may be upside on potential for increased DC adoption for likes of Kioxia.</li>
<li>Mitsubishi Motors cut their FY guidance as competition heats up in key Asian markets as China makers muscle their way in.</li>
<li>Nikon +21% yesterday as EL takes a bigger stake, but don't forget the largest holder activist Silchester-  who may have their own plans.</li>
</ul>


HDD plays WD and Seagate pulling ahead of NAND plays but there may be upside on potential for increased DC adoption for likes of Kioxia.
Mitsubishi Motors cut their FY guidance as competition heats up in key Asian markets as China makers muscle their way in.
Nikon +21% yesterday as EL takes a bigger stake, but don't forget the largest holder activist Silchester-  who may have their own plans.


Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Ahead of Consensus but Not Enough to Push the Stock Higher

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Reuters has an article out saying that Buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro. Bain, Advent, EQT, KKR all in the mix. The stock went limit up...

Travis Lundy

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Power and Industrial Semis in Focus After Infineon Big Beat on AI

Slight tech rebound led by power semis. Smaller NAND buyers not having access to wholesale suppliers, buying from spot market and driving up...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shakes off Initial Weakness with Talks of Blackwell Sales to China

Memory plays continue to trade well with strong growth outlook for NAND memory, watch Kioxia as a squeeze candidate. Dell down with numbers showing...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Ahead of Consensus but Not Enough to Push the Stock Higher

Expect slight weakness for JP SPE after NVDA dip, guidance cut from Mitsubishi Motors looks like it was expected, Nikon limit up on news of EL...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

Reuters has an article out saying that Buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro. Bain, Advent, EQT, KKR all in the mix. The stock went limit up...

Travis Lundy

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

​Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Power and Industrial Semis in Focus After Infineon Big Beat on AI

Slight tech rebound led by power semis. Smaller NAND buyers not having access to wholesale suppliers, buying from spot market and driving up...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shakes off Initial Weakness with Talks of Blackwell Sales to China

Memory plays continue to trade well with strong growth outlook for NAND memory, watch Kioxia as a squeeze candidate. Dell down with numbers showing...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Numbers Ahead of Consensus but Not Enough to Push the Stock Higher

Expect slight weakness for JP SPE after NVDA dip, guidance cut from Mitsubishi Motors looks like it was expected, Nikon limit up on news of EL...

Andrew Jackson

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...