Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.</li>
<li>~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.</li>
<li>There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.</li>
</ul>


PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo</li>
<li>
<p>Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China. </p>
</li>
</ul>


In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo

Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.


Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China. 



<ul>
<li>In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.</li>
<li>Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.</li>
<li>Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Legend Holdings Corp H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK)</a> owns 31% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> , the number one global PC maker</li>
<li>Lenovo is a leader selling AI enabled PC's globally.  Its server business is growing rapidly through strong demand for generative AI.  Legend is the leading AI seed investor in China.</li>
<li>Technical pattern strong for Lenovo reaching a 9 year high.  Legend showing increasing momentum from an historic trough valuation level</li>
</ul>



Legend Holdings Corp H (3396 HK) owns 31% of Lenovo (992 HK) , the number one global PC maker
Lenovo is a leader selling AI enabled PC's globally.  Its server business is growing rapidly through strong demand for generative AI.  Legend is the leading AI seed investor in China.
Technical pattern strong for Lenovo reaching a 9 year high.  Legend showing increasing momentum from an historic trough valuation level


How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Government stabilisation measures kick in as tariff war starts to bite</li>
<li>Can the HK and China markets continue their bull run as markets dislocate?</li>
<li>Is it time to selectively get back into the Chinese tech sector?</li>
</ul>


Government stabilisation measures kick in as tariff war starts to bite
Can the HK and China markets continue their bull run as markets dislocate?
Is it time to selectively get back into the Chinese tech sector?


Hong Kong Market Strategy - Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility

China

Lenovo Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, sells, and manufactures personal computers and handheld devices. The Company also provides Internet services and IT services, and contracting manufacturing business.

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Lenovo (992 HK)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened yesterday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)

Legend's subsidiary Levima Advanced Materials announced Net profit of 159mm RmB for 1H25, a 43% increase from 1H24. Levima (003002 CH) is the 25%...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Market Strategy - Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility

$769 has lagged other rare earth plays but it is now up 100% in two days. We would look to sell half and keep the rest as a free ride. Hard...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

​PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

Lucror Analytics - Convertibles Brief

In today's Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: LenovoCredit markets widened yesterday,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January. Overall, the index recorded a 0.9%...

Lucror Analytics

How to Own Lenovo at a Discount: BUY Legend Holdings Corp (3396 HK)

Legend's subsidiary Levima Advanced Materials announced Net profit of 159mm RmB for 1H25, a 43% increase from 1H24. Levima (003002 CH) is the 25%...

David Mudd

Hong Kong Market Strategy - Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility

$769 has lagged other rare earth plays but it is now up 100% in two days. We would look to sell half and keep the rest as a free ride. Hard...

Rikki Malik

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...