Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Good price momentum, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sector</li><li>Shipments of new PCIe solid-state drives (SSD) should gain momentum due to  growing demand for faster computing; the average selling price of PCIe SSDs is two times higher than that of older standard SATA</li><li>In order to support growing demand Phison’s new factory in Miaoli with a total investment of US$25m has commenced its operations in 2Q17; the company plans to double headcount</li><li>Trades slightly above Asian Info Tech at 17CE* 3.1x PB but offers better ROE, higher dividend yield and is net cash</li><li>Risks: Slowdown in smartphone and PC markets</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Good price momentum, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sectorShipments of new PCIe solid-state drives (SSD) should gain momentum due to  growing demand for faster computing; the average selling price of PCIe SSDs is two times higher than that of older standard SATAIn order to support growing demand Phison’s new factory in Miaoli with a total investment of US$25m has commenced its operations in 2Q17; the company plans to double headcountTrades slightly above Asian Info Tech at 17CE* 3.1x PB but offers better ROE, higher dividend yield and is net cashRisks: Slowdown in smartphone and PC markets* Consensus Estimates

Phison (8299 TT): New Solid-State Drives to Drive Growth

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<h2>The outlook for memory and foundry</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> expects tight memory supply/demand conditions to continue in 4Q17 due to increased demand mainly from server/mobile. Consistent with our earlier report " <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/memory-channel-check-suggested-we-might-be-wrong-earlier" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14121">Memory Channel Check Suggested We Might Be Wrong Earlier</a> " dated 3 Oct 2017, we expected leading vendors to raise cloud datacenter contract DRAM price by 7-10% q/q and mobile contract DRAM price by 10-15% q/q in 4Q17 due to a stronger demand. For 2018, Samsung expects…

The outlook for memory and foundrySamsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) expects tight memory supply/demand conditions to continue in 4Q17 due to increased demand mainly from server/mobile. Consistent with our earlier report " Memory Channel Check Suggested We Might Be Wrong Earlier " dated 3 Oct 2017, we expected leading vendors to raise cloud datacenter contract DRAM price by 7-10% q/q and mobile contract DRAM price by 10-15% q/q in 4Q17 due to a stronger demand. For 2018, Samsung expects…

What Samsung Says About Demand; Implications to Memory, Display, and Smartphone Competitors?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1115" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1115:1">KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US)</a>, the semiconductor process control and yield management power-house, yesterday posted record earnings for their latest quarter with revenues coming in at the top end of their guidance range at $970, net income of $281 million and earnings per diluted share of $1.78. CEO Richard Wallace noted that new orders in September were a record for the third calendar quarter, and totaled approximately $3 billion YTD in calendar 2017.In a recent Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-brief-analysis-of-semiconductor-wafer-fab-equipment-s-current-growth-cycle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13717">A Brief Analysis of</a>…

KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US), the semiconductor process control and yield management power-house, yesterday posted record earnings for their latest quarter with revenues coming in at the top end of their guidance range at $970, net income of $281 million and earnings per diluted share of $1.78. CEO Richard Wallace noted that new orders in September were a record for the third calendar quarter, and totaled approximately $3 billion YTD in calendar 2017.In a recent Insight, A Brief Analysis of…

KLA-Tencor Q12018 Strong Results Fueled By China WFE Spending

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> released their Q3 201 earnings after market close on Thursday, details from the company website can be found <a href="https://s21.q4cdn.com/600692695/files/doc_news/2017/Q3-2017_Earnings-Release_Final-PDF.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.  Revenues of  $16.1 billion were $400 million higher than the company's outlook from Q2 earnings. Operating income was $5.6 billion, up 8% year over year, and EPS was $1.01, up 26% year over year. They also raised the full-year business outlook for the third consecutive quarter, this time by $700 million to $62 billion. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/036/683/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-10-27%20at%2012.46.02%20pm.png?1509079615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="36683"></figure>The Client Computing Group revenue was…

Intel Corp (INTC US) released their Q3 201 earnings after market close on Thursday, details from the company website can be found here.  Revenues of  $16.1 billion were $400 million higher than the company's outlook from Q2 earnings. Operating income was $5.6 billion, up 8% year over year, and EPS was $1.01, up 26% year over year. They also raised the full-year business outlook for the third consecutive quarter, this time by $700 million to $62 billion. The Client Computing Group revenue was…

Intel Q3 2017 Earnings -$2 Billion NAND Prepayments Bodes Well for Memory Business

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to...

Vermilion Research

Phison (8299 TT): New Solid-State Drives to Drive Growth

Good price momentum, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sector Shipments of new PCIe solid-state drives (SSD)...

A. Stotz Investment Research

What Samsung Says About Demand; Implications to Memory, Display, and Smartphone Competitors?

The outlook for memory and foundrySamsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) expects tight memory supply/demand conditions to continue in 4Q17 due to...

Andrew Lu

KLA-Tencor Q12018 Strong Results Fueled By China WFE Spending

KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC US), the semiconductor process control and yield management power-house, yesterday posted record earnings for their latest...

William Keating

Intel Q3 2017 Earnings -$2 Billion NAND Prepayments Bodes Well for Memory Business

Intel Corp (INTC US) released their Q3 201 earnings after market close on Thursday, details from the company website can be found here. Revenues...

William Keating

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