Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

<ul>
<li>October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. </li>
<li>Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.</li>
<li>Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. 
Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.
Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.


Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>Last week’s upside break failed quickly pulling AS51 back into the narrow range that it had been confined to.</li>
<li>Market participation weakened meaningfully, with fewer stocks advancing and losses outweighing gains beneath the surface.</li>
<li>We introduce new analysis comparing average single stock implied vol with AS51 index vol, highlighting a significant disconnect.</li>
</ul>


Last week’s upside break failed quickly pulling AS51 back into the narrow range that it had been confined to.
Market participation weakened meaningfully, with fewer stocks advancing and losses outweighing gains beneath the surface.
We introduce new analysis comparing average single stock implied vol with AS51 index vol, highlighting a significant disconnect.


Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 15 – 19): Rejected Rally and Rising Volatility Dispersion

<ul>
<li>Stocks were broadly lower, giving back last Friday’s rally with breadth continuing weak.</li>
<li>We present new data showing average single stock implied vols.</li>
<li>Average Single stock implied vols are reaching levels last seen before a major decline.</li>
</ul>


Stocks were broadly lower, giving back last Friday’s rally with breadth continuing weak.
We present new data showing average single stock implied vols.
Average Single stock implied vols are reaching levels last seen before a major decline.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 15–19): Fragile Internals Meet Depressed Impiled Vols

<ul>
<li>Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.</li>
<li>Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.</li>
<li>Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Macro assets reveal shifting volatility landscapes, with inexpensive implied vols, seasonal headwinds, and notable divergences across key markets.
Seasonal pressures are turning negative, with September historically weaker, while risk-reward spreads highlight CSI300 strength and SPASX200 vulnerability.
Implied vols remain inexpensive across most assets, with NKY, Nifty, and SPASX200 near historic lows despite shifting market dynamics.


Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 15 – 19): Rejected Rally and Rising Volatility Dispersion

A failed upside break, weakening breadth and a widening gap between index and single stock implied volatility point to rising dispersion beneath...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Dec 15–19): Fragile Internals Meet Depressed Impiled Vols

Weak breadth and softer prices defined the week as single stock implied vols drifted toward historically low levels, creating a more fragile...

John Ley

Global Macro Outlook (September): Cheap Vols Meet Seasonal Weakness Across Key Assets

September outlook highlights inexpensive implied vols, seasonal pressures, and risk-reward spreads that favor CSI300 while underscoring poorrisk...

John Ley